Raiders vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
It’s a pretty tight race in the AFC West after the first month of the season. While Kanas City is a perfect 4-0, the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers are all tied at 2-2.
Las Vegas has alternated wins and losses this season and they enter Week 5 following 20-16 home victory against Cleveland last week. Denver won their second straight game with a sloppy 10-9 decision on the road against the New York Jets in Week 4.
The Broncos opened as 1.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at a meager 37.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Nearly 70 per cent of early bettors are taking Denver in this game, pushing the spread to Broncos -3 as of Thursday afternoon. Early betting action is also favouring the Under, leading the total to shrink a full point to 36.0, the lowest of any game this week.
Not only have the Raiders swept the last four season series’, they’re also 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-heads. And if you’re wondering why the total is so low, well so am I, considering three of the last four matchups have finished well above 36 combined points.
Las Vegas is 1-1 straight up both at home and on the road this season. Interestingly, they’ve won outright in two of three games as an underdog, but they lost the only game in which they were favourites. The Raiders have evenly split the Over/Under in 2024, although the total has gone Under in seven of their last 10 divisional games.
Denver is a solid 3-1 ATS this season, while playing the Under three times. The Under could be the play this week as the Broncos have finished below the number in 11 of their last 16 games overall, 11 of their last 15 games against the Raiders and five of their last seven home games.
Las Vegas Raiders
No one on the Raiders really stood out as a superstar last week, but they still managed to pull out a win against Cleveland. Gardner Minshew completed 14 of 24 pass attempts for 130 yards with no TDs or interceptions, his lowest production this season. That’s concerning given Las Vegas has the second-worst rushing offence in the NFL (76.3 yards per game), so they need Minshew to really move the ball around.
The elephant in the room right now is the trade request by star receiver Davante Adams, who missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Adams hasn’t practiced this week and looks like a long shot to play. Defensive end Maxx Crosby also hasn’t practiced as he works his way back from an ankle injury that kept him out of the lineup in Week 4. Crosby is expected to remain out of the lineup this week.
Denver Broncos
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled heavily this season, but the Broncos found a way to win last week despite Nix finishing with negative-seven passing yards in the first half. Side note, how do you even do that!? Nix eventually finished the game 12-of-25 for just 60 yards, but he did throw his first career TD pass.
Denver is clearly relying heavily on their defence this season, but I think it will be enough to get the win against a banged up Las Vegas team that isn’t very good even when they’re healthy. The Broncos rank second in the NFL in average total yards allowed (256.5), third in passing yards allowed (146.0) and third in points allowed (13.8) per game.
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