Patriots vs. Texans Point Spread: AFC Divisional Round Odds

The NFL’s wild-card weekend was full of blowouts and really not all that interesting. The four games had a total margin of victory of 76 points. The 19.0-point differential average was the highest of any wild-card weekend since 1981. The divisional round should be much more competitive — except perhaps for Saturday night’s game when AFC South champion and No. 4 seed Houston visits AFC East king and No. 1 New England. The Patriots have opened as one of the biggest playoff favourites in league history on Sports Interaction’s NFL playoff betting odds.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

Point spread:Patriots -16

Over/under: 45/p>

Date: Saturday, Jan. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.

Houston Texans

The only reason I thought the Texans (10-7) would win last week against visiting Oakland was because Houston was at home and the Raiders were starting fourth-round rookie Connor Cook at quarterback — the first time in league history a QB made his first NFL start in a playoff game. Cook was in there because Oakland’s top two QBs were out injured. Had the Texans played any of the other AFC playoff participants, they probably would have been home underdogs and lost.

But, they beat the Raiders 27-14. As expected, Houston gave the overmatched Cook all sorts of trouble as the former Michigan State star was just 18-for-45 for 161 yards with three interceptions and three sacks. Cook’s receivers didn’t do him any favours with some drops, but it really wouldn’t have mattered. The Raiders never had a chance and managed 203 total yards.

Brock Osweiler was back as Houston’s starting QB for the first time since being pulled in Week 15 due to his struggles. He started because Tom Savage suffered a concussion in Week 17. Osweiler wasn’t great against the Raiders in going 14-for-25 for 168 yards with a touchdown while running for a score. Most interesting was that he didn’t turn the ball over for just the third time this season in a game he started. Osweiler will start again here. The Texans rushed the ball 44 times vs. Oakland, with Lamar Miller getting 31 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Houston will need more from its offense to pull this upset. The Texans are 0-2 all-time in the divisional round, losing 20-13 at Baltimore following the 2011 season and 41-28 at New England following the 2012 campaign. Osweiler did beat the Patriots in the 2015 regular season while with the Broncos, however. Denver won 30-24 at home in overtime, with Osweiler throwing for a TD.

New England Patriots

The Patriots (14-2) are in the playoffs for the eighth straight year, tying the Green Bay Packers for the longest active streak in the NFL. New England hasn’t lost their postseason opener since being upset at home in the divisional round by the New York Jets following the 2010 season.

The next loss for New England could see its coaching staff raided as both offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are candidates for some open head-coaching gigs. When you think of the Patriots, you think of Tom Brady and their offense. New England was third in the NFL in averaging 27.6 points and Brady played at an MVP level in throwing for 3,554 yards and 28 touchdowns in 12 games. His 28:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio was the best in NFL history. He is 39 years old.

While Houston led the NFL in total defense, it might surprise you to know the Patriots were No. 1 in scoring defense in allowing 15.6 ppg. Was that a fluke? The Patriots had just 34 sacks and 23 total takeaways, both middling numbers. Usually top defensive teams are among the leaders in those categories.

The Patriots are the biggest playoff favourites since the 1998 Minnesota Vikings were -16 for their home divisional round game against Arizona, which the Vikings won by 20. That high-powered Minnesota team would be upset the next week in the NFC title game by Atlanta. If you’re wondering, the Patriots have been at least 16-point regular-season favourites eight times in the past 10 years. They won all eight games but covered only three of them.

New England remains the shortest choice on Super Bowl odds at +150.

Texans vs. Patriots Predictions

These teams met on Thursday in Week 3 in Foxboro, and New England rolled to a 27-0 victory with rookie Jacoby Brissett starting at QB. Brady was still suspended then and backup Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. Houston actually outgained the Patriots 284-282, but the Texans turned it over three times and New England had no turnovers. Osweiler threw for 196 yards and an interception.

Overall, New England has won five straight games over Houston by a 171-79 margin. That said, history has generally shown that if you can get more than two touchdowns on an NFL team then you should take the points because the big underdogs usually cover. So take the points here and go under the total. The Texans’ very good defense should keep this one moderately close.

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