Patriots vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
New England and Houston both come into this game with 1-3 records, but don’t let that fool you. The Patriots are a dangerous team that nearly knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions, Tampa Bay, in a 19-17 loss, last week. The Texans on the other hand, have been as bad as advertised and come into Week 5 following an absolute pounding last week, dropping a 40-0 decision against Buffalo.
The Patriots are heavy 9-point road favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 40.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Texans won the only meeting between these teams last season, a 27-20 W in Houston, although neither starting quarterback from that game will play Sunday. Deshaun Watson (waiting to be traded) threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns for the Texans. Cam Newton (currently a free agent) led the Pats with 365 passing yards and a TD. Nearly 90 per cent of early Sports Interaction bettors are taking New England in this game, with just over 80 per cent taking the Under.
The Pats have largely dominated Houston in the past, winning eight of the last 10 games in this head-to-head-series. New England is an even 2-2 against the spread this season, including 1-2 ATS on the road. They’ve struggled to cover against the AFC South however, only managing to go 1-5 ATS against their last six AFC South opponents. The total has gone Under in five straight road games for the Patriots and 10 of their last 12 overall. All four of their games this season have gone Under.
Despite squeaking out a win against the nearly-as-bad Jaguars in Week 1, Houston has been terrible, dating back to last season. The Texans have lost eight of their last nine games overall and six of their last seven against AFC opponents. They have managed to go 4-1-1 ATS against AFC East opponents and they’re 2-2 ATS this season. The total has gone Over in nine of Houston’s last 13 games against New England and four of their last six games overall. They’ve split the Over/Under this season.
New England Patriots
You’ve got to give it to the Pats, with a rookie quarterback they were able to make the defending Super Bowl champions sweat and almost pulled off the upset win. If not for a late missed field goal attempt, New England would have stunned the Bucs. Mac Jones has looked more comfortable leading the offence each game this season. Last week, he went 31-for-40, finishing with 275 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
The biggest issue in New England right now is the rushing game, as they finished with negative-1 rushing yards, last week. Nelson Agholor was the only Pats player to finish with positive yardage, rushing for four yards on one carry. Damien Harris was the only player to get more than one carry, finishing with negative-4 yards on four carries. It’s only the fourth time since 1970 a team has finished a game with negative rushing yards. The Pats have a chance to turn things around this season, but they’ll need to find a run-game somewhere.
As far as injuries, defensive end Henry Anderson was forced out of last week’s game with a chest injury. It’s thought that Anderson’s season is done because of a torn pectoral muscle. Safety Cody Davis also left last week’s game early, as he dealt with a knee injury. There’s been no update on Davis’ status for this week.
Houston Texans
The best way to describe Houston’s shutout loss last week against Buffalo, is to say it was a massacre. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills has looked completely overwhelmed trying to lead the Texans’ offence. In his second career start, Mills went 11-for-21 against the Bills, finishing with 87 passing yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions for a 23.4 passer rating. Houston’s run-game wasn’t any better, as they finished with 48 rushing yards. Mark Ingram Jr. led the team with 24 rushing yards on six carries.
The Texans’ quarterback situation has clearly become a major issue. With Deshaun Watson’s legal issues and his desire for a trade, Tyrod Taylor was tapped to lead the offence this year. Taylor was forced out of the second game of the season with a hamstring injury and he needs to miss at least one more game under NFL rules regarding players on injured reserve. He’s reportedly dealing with a Grade 2 strained left hamstring and is expected back “in a couple weeks” according to head coach David Culley.
Defensive end Jonathan Greenard (chest) and running back Rex Burkhead (hip) both left last week’s game early. Greenard’s injury is not considered serious, but there’s been no update on his status, so it’s worth monitoring. It’s also worth watching for updates on Burkhead, as it’s unclear how serious his injury is.
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