Patriots vs. Jaguars Point Spread: NFL Week 7 Odds, Prediction
Jacksonville and New England have been among the bottom-feeders of the NFL through six weeks. The Jags are playing their second straight game in London after being blown out 35-16 against Chicago at premier League club Tottenham Hotspur’s home field. Meanwhile, the Pats were on the wrong end of a 41-21 decision last week against Houston, extending their losing streak to five games.
Jacksonville opened as a 5.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 41.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Despite a heavy majority of early betting action coming in on the Jaguars, the line has remained steady at -5.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The total has inched up half a point to 42, which isn’t overly surprising as the game opened with one of the lowest totals of the week.
Since a surprise Week 1 win in Cincinnati, it’s been all downhill for the Patriots, who have lost five straight games while failing to cover the spread at all in that five-game stretch. New England is an even 3-3 on the Over/Under this season.
Despite technically being declared the home team in Week 7, the Jags are still obviously playing away from home, so it’s worthing noting they’re 0-4 on the road in 2024. Covering has been tough for Jacksonville as they are just 2-4 against the spread overall and they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five games against bottom-10 defences.
New England Patriots
The big story for New England heading into last week was rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s first career start. Picked third overall in the 2024 draft, Maye had some ups and down, completing 20 of 33 pass attempts for 243 yards, three TDs and two interceptions. He also ran for a team-high 38 yards, but the Patriots’ weak offensive line resulted in four sacks. Overall, it was a much better performance than any of the five games Jacoby Brissett has started this season, so Maye should remain QB1 going forward.
It will be interesting to see how New England’s offence continues to develop under Maye. Last week’s 21 points was a season-high for the Pats and it was the first time the team finished with over 200 passing yards in a game this season. One thing that will need to change is penalties. After losing 105 yards on five penalties two weeks ago against Miami, the Patriots were flagged nine times for 50 yards last week against Houston.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars seemingly play multiple games in London every year, but last week is proof it doesn’t always go well for them. Jacksonville trailed by double-digits at the half and never had a grasp on the game. Trevor Lawrence completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 234 yards, two TDs and one interception. Lawrence has elevated his game recently, averaging 302.5 passing yards per game in the last two weeks. Against a weak New England secondary, I like Lawrence to cruise past his passing yards total of 239.5 yards.
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