Patriots vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Oct 05, 2020

chiefs vs patriots week 4

The Chiefs have picked up right where they left off last season – and that’s bad news for the Patriots as the AFC foes do battle Monday at Arrowhead Stadium

October 04, 2020, 4:25 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +7 -115
Moneyline +257
Over / Under o +53


Betting Action


Pointspread -7 +100
Moneyline -310
Over / Under u +53


Betting Action


The defending Super Bowl champions have won each of their first three games of the season while averaging better than 30 points per outing. And they’re a one-touchdown favourite for their Week 4 showdown with a Patriots team that has also been surprisingly stout on offence.

These two teams were scheduled to play Sunday, but Patriots quarterback Cam Newton and Chiefs practice squad quarterback Jordan Ta’amu were added to the COVID-19 reserve list this weekend.

The Patriots will go with Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham to start.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Chiefs are seven-point faves in this one, and given their success against the spread, they should still see plenty of backers. Kansas City is an incredible 11-1 ATS in its previous 12 games, with its only misstep coming in a 23-20 win over the Chargers in Week 2. Only 57 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are siding with the home team, despite the fact that the Patriots have gone 3-6 ATS in their last nine trips to Arrowhead.

There’s just as small a consensus on the total, which stands at 54; just under 60 percent of Sports Interaction respondents are going with the Over. New England has gone above the number in five of its previous seven games, with its past two contests averaging just over 60 total points. But while the Chiefs do have a video game-style offence, they’ve actually converted the Under in eight of their last 12 games.

New England Patriots

Just how different is this Patriots team than past iterations? It starts with the running game: New England leads the NFL with an average of 178 yards per game on the ground, and that will likely continue as long as the Patriots are successful with it. But don’t discount the passing game, either: New Patriots starting quarterback Cam Newton has completed more than 68 percent of his pass attempts for 714 yards through the first three games.

Kansas City Chiefs

All the attention will be on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has eight touchdown passes and three interceptions in three career meetings with New England. But let’s not ignore electrifying running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire; the rookie out of LSU leads all first-year players with 220 rushing yards while averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per carry. He might be an intriguing prop play against the Patriots, who allow 4.6 yards per attempt.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. Chiefs?