Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Point Spread: AFC Championship Odds, Prediction
The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will look to punch their ticket to Super Bowl 60 when they meet in the AFC Championship Game in the Mile High City on Sunday.
Denver is in the AFC Championship following a 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. It was a costly victory, however, as quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending broken ankle on the final drive of the game.
New England absolutely bullied the Houston Texans 28-16 to earn their spot in the AFC Championship. It continues a nearly unbelievable streak of 15 years in which either the Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs have reached the AFC title game.
The Pats opened as 4.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 42.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
If the Nix injury hadn’t been announced immediately following the Broncos’ Divisional Round win, you would likely see Denver favoured at home.
The line saw some slight fluctuation early, moving to New England -5.5, but bettors seem to have a little more faith in Denver’s backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham as the spread is back to -4.5.
Unfortunately, these teams haven’t met in a couple years, with Pats quarterback Drake Maye still in college the last time they faced off. This will be a repeat of the 2015 AFC Championship Game, played almost exactly 10 years ago. Denver won that game 20-18 en route to their most recent Super Bowl title.
When you look at home and road splits this season, neither team really has the edge. While the Broncos are 9-1 straight up at Mile High this season, New England is a perfect 8-0 on the road. For what it’s worth, the altitude seems to have helped Denver in the past as they are 14-6 in their last 20 home games against the Patriots.
New England has been a much better cover option this season. The Pats are 14-5 against the spreading, covering seven times each at home and on the road. The Broncos are 8-10 ATS overall, including 6-4 ATS at home.
Oddsmakers don’t have much faith in the AFC right now as New England is +250 to win the Super Bowl on the NFL futures board, while Denver is a massive+1300 underdog. That trails both NFC teams, Seattle (+150) and the Rams (+220).
New England Patriots
New England clearly has the edge at quarterback in this game. Drake Maye took a huge step forward in his sophomore campaign, finishing the regular season fourth in passing yards (4,394) and third in passing TDs (31) while throwing just eight interceptions.
Maye hasn’t been perfect in the postseason against the Chargers and Texans elite defences. However, he’s done enough to give me confidence he’ll be able to get by a tough Broncos defence that is better defending the rush than the passing attack.
I also think the Patriots have the edge at running back with Denver’s J.K. Dobbins either not playing or playing injured. Meanwhile, New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson scored six touchdowns in his final three regular season games and followed up with 209 yards from scrimmage in two playoff games.
Denver Broncos
I’ll be very interested to see how Sean Payton attacks this game with Jarrett Stidham under centre. Stidham hasn’t thrown the ball in regular season game since 2023 and he’s never taken a snap in the playoffs.
Still, whether you buy it or not, Denver claims they know Stidham can do enough to win. That comes down to a deep Broncos team around Stidham. And with the possible return of running back J.K. Dobbins, the offensive unit could have an added option in the backfield.
This game, however, will come down Denver’s second-ranked defensive unit. The Broncos have limited opponents to 278.2 yards per game and they’ve been particularly adept at stopping the run, giving up an average of just 91.1 rushing yards per game.
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