Patriots vs. Bills SNF Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
The Bills have won an NFL-best 14 straight regular-season home games and are 8-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 49.5.
Sunday Night Football Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Playing in primetime is old hat for Buffalo and superstar quarterback Josh Allen, and they will be featured under the lights yet again on Monday in Week 5. The unbeaten Bills have owned the AFC East for years and are well on their way to a sixth straight division title as the -1800 favourite. Every other club in the division has at least two losses.
But since Tom Brady left and the Patriots fell apart as a franchise, playing in primetime has been fairly rare for New England. It’s the first such game of the year for the Pats. It also starts what is likely a season-defining three-game trip for them, with winnable games in New Orleans and Nashville up next. So should the Patriots pull the upset here, all of a sudden a playoff spot doesn’t look that impossible under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. They are +130 to get there and -160 to miss out again. Most likely, the Patriots won’t be post-season contenders before 2026 at the earliest.
New England owned Buffalo when Brady was around, but the Bills have largely dominated since, although they split in 2024 with each winning at home. Buffalo rested most of its starters in the Week 18 defeat in Foxborough with its playoff seeding clinched. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
New England Patriots
The Patriots played easily one of their best games on Sunday since Tom Brady left the franchise, trashing visiting Carolina, 42-13. Second-year QB Drake Maye was very sharp in completing 14 of 17 for 203 yards and two scores and rushing for a TD. The team had six different players score a TD, tying a franchise mark and for the first time since 2019. The 42 points were the most for New England since 2021, and the margin of victory was its largest since 2022. Stefon Diggs had six catches for 101 yards to break a 22-game personal streak without 100. That’s all nice, but Carolina remains one of the NFL’s worst teams and is now 2-18 away since 2018. The Pats might have a new timeshare at tailback. One week after Rhamondre Stevenson lost two fumbles and backup Antonio Gibson lost one, the team altered the snaps played by running backs by lessening Stevenson’s workload with more of an even split along side Gibson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson. No fumbles by any backs on Sunday. New England is 1-4 ATS in its past five October games.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo closed at -15 on Sunday at home vs. wretched New Orleans, and the Bills played rather unevenly in the 31-19 victory and are now the AFC’s only unbeaten club. Josh Allen threw for two scores and ran for one, while tailback James Cook had his third straight game with at least 100 yards and a TD on the ground. Buffalo’s defense limited the Saints to 19 points despite New Orleans’ first nine drives ending in Bills territory. That unit was without two key injured starters in tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano. It was Oliver’s third missed in a row and Milano’s second. About the only negative Sunday was Buffalo’s streak of eight straight games without a turnover, including playoffs, coming to an end. That was tied with the 2024 Chiefs as the longest such run in modern NFL history. Buffalo still managed a 26th straight game without losing the turnover battle, which is the longest streak by any NFL team since 1940. The Bills’ 14-game home winning streak is one shy of the franchise mark set from 1990-91. It’s only the third time in the past 30 years they are 4-0 overall, however. The over is 5-1 in the team’s past six games.
NE
BUF