The Bills opened as 4.5-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 43.5 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Let’s say right off the bat that it’s going to be very cold in Buffalo on Saturday night. Not exactly breaking news when talking Buffalo in mid-January, but we’re talking a low of single digits with winds of 10-15 mph and wind chills below zero. It doesn’t appear snow will be an issue, though.

This will be the third meeting between the division rivals in about six weeks with both road teams winning. The game in Buffalo in Week 13 had plenty of snow and crazy wind gusts, and the Patriots prevailed 14-10 despite attempting just three passes. They rushed 46 times for 221 yards and a TD; Buffalo knew it was coming on every play and could do nothing about it. The Bills couldn’t get their run going nearly as well with 99 yards on 25 carries.

It’s just the second-ever playoff matchup between the franchises. They met in an AFL divisional round game in 1963, with the Boston Patriots beating the Bills 26-3. The underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

New England Patriots

New England entered Week 18 with a very outside chance of the AFC’s top seed as well as for the AFC East title, but the Patriots were beaten 33-24 in Miami to slip to the sixth seed. Because Buffalo won, it really wouldn’t have mattered what the Pats did in that game. Allowing 33 points to a very iffy Dolphins offence is a bit worrisome, and it was the third time in the past four games that New England surrendered at least 27 points (1-3 in those four). In the team’s previous seven games, all wins, the defense allowed more than 13 points just once.

QB Mac Jones, who probably finishes second in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race, threw for 261 yards with a TD and a pick against Miami. Jones also had a lost fumble and New England is 1-4 this season when Jones has multiple turnovers. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their past seven after a loss.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo moved up one spot to the AFC’s No. 3 seed and won the AFC East Sunday with an easy 27-10 home win over the Jets, the team’s fourth straight victory – all by double digits. Josh Allen threw for two scores and rushed for 63 yards. The Bills have been running Allen perhaps too much of late because their backs were struggling, but Devin Singletary had 88 yards and a TD on 19 carries, so that’s a good sign. Defensively, Buffalo held the Jets to a laughable 53 yards total. The Bills finished No. 1 in scoring defence (17.0 ppg) and the Patriots No. 2 (17.8 ppg).

Saturday will be the first time the top two scoring defenses have met in the Wild-Card round, and only the fourth time in the last 20 post-seasons in any round. The Bills are the first team since the 2012 Steelers to lead the NFL in total defence without a player selected to the Pro Bowl. The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight vs. the AFC East.

NFL Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. Bills?