Patriots vs. Bears Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
The Bears have been a completely different team home and away this season. They’re a perfect 4-0 at Soldier Field, but last week’s 29-9 loss in Arizona dropped Chicago to 0-4 on the road. The Pats have just one home win and road win each and they fell to 2-7 on the season with a 20-17 overtime loss in Tennessee last week.
Chicago opened as a seven-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 39.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This is the first meeting since the Bears won 33-14 over New England in October 2022. There’s not much to take away from that game as there has been massive player and personnel change in both organizations over the last two years.
If this were European soccer, the Patriots would be in major danger of relegation as they are deadlocked in a thrilling (yawn) seven-way tie for last in the NFL standings. Luckily for New England, this isn’t European soccer so they won’t be relegated, they’ll just miss the playoffs for a third straight year and once again pick high in the draft.
Chicago has shown signs of improvement, but they’re still in a tricky spot at the bottom of the NFC North. They won’t catch Detroit for the division and they’ll be hard-pressed to claim a wild card spot. The Bears look likely to miss the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year, but there are plenty of signs that point to them challenging for a spot in 2025.
Both teams have been average cover options at best. Chicago is slightly more profitable at 4-3-1 against the spread, while New England is 3-5-1 ATS. It is worth noting that the Bears play well against bad teams as they’ve won outright and covered the spread against the Titans, Panthers and Jaguars this year.
New England Patriots
The Patriots got rookie quarterback Drake Maye back from concussion protocol for last week’s Tennessee tilt, but the team suffered another frustrating loss in overtime. Maye completed 29 of 41 pass attempts for 206 yards, one TD and two interceptions while also rushing for a team-high 95 yards. The third overall pick in this year’s draft has shown flashes of two-way ability, but he’s struggled to produce behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
New England shockingly didn’t make any moves at this week’s trade deadline, despite reportedly fielding a lot of calls. In addition to little protection from the O-line for Maye, he’s also throwing to one of the weakest receiving cores in the league. The Patriots rank dead last in average passing yards per game (153.8) and no player has more than one receiving TD.
Chicago Bears
Rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze connected for 104 yards in the air on five receptions last week as they started to show some clear chemistry. Williams finished with 217 passing yards and while he didn’t throw a TD pass for the second straight game, he also avoided throwing a pick for the second straight game. He was sacked six times, eventually limping off the field with an ankle injury, although head coach Matt Erebus has said it won’t be an issue.
D’Andre Swift led Chicago with 54 rushing yards last week and there’s reason to believe he could be in for a big week against New England. After averaging just 1.5 yards per carry and failing to find the end zone over the first three games of the season, Swift has TDs in four of his last five games while averaging 18 touches per game in that stretch. Swift should be able to have a monster game against a Patriots defence that has allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,121) and rushing TDs (10) to opposing running backs this season.
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