Patriots vs. 49ers Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Sep 26, 2024

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Frustration is starting to boil up for both the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots ahead of their Week 4 matchup in the Bay Area. Both clubs are on two-game skids and have their own growing problems.  

AT
September 29, 2024, 4:05 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
Pointspread +10.5 -110
Moneyline +450
Over / Under o +41.5
Pointspread -10.5 -110
Moneyline -600
Over / Under u +41.5

In New England, veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett is taking a beating but first-year head coach Jerod Mayo is still rolling with him after a 24-3 defeat last week. But one thing’s clear: the Patriots’ upset Week 1 win at Cincinnati was a one-off. The 49ers are now in the basement of an ultra-competitive NFC West and still down key weapons on offence. Pressure’s on San Francisco to deliver some wins, while pressure’s on New England to properly handle the QB room of Brissett and 2024 third-overall pick Drake Maye — although the latter doesn’t appear to be replacing Brissett anytime soon.  

Kickoff at Levi’s Stadium goes at 4:05 p.m. EDT with the 49ers double-digit favourites at home and the over-under at 40.5 on the NFL odds. 

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Patriots we’re supposed to rank toward the bottom of the NFL in scoring, and they’re currently 31st with 13 points per game. San Francisco was supposed to again be way above-average in all facets of the game, but the defence ranks in the bottom third of the NFL with 23 points allowed per outing. New England coming into town should solve the 49ers early woes on defence, and if not, then maybe it’s time to worry. 

San Francisco is one of the best teams at home with 13 wins in their last 17 in Santa Clara. Covering the spread has been another story as the 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight at home. But a lot of that has to do with being double-digit favourites like the 49ers are this Sunday. Prior to last week, the Patriots had covered in four straight road outings. New England’s also 4-2 ATS in their last six contests with San Francisco. 

New England Patriots

He was sacked five times and hit many more in last week’s 24-3 defeat but Jacoby Brissett remains QB1 for New England moving forward. The Pats have had 10 days to heal and re-group from the ugly Thursday Night Football loss at New York and a good plan moving forward would be to get back to running the football. 

In Weeks 1 and 2, Rhamondre Stevenson had 46 carries for 201 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 3 at New York, Stevenson rushed six times for 23 yards. The game script may have caused the Patriots to abandon the run but in hindsight the run may be all New England has when it comes to having a chance at success. And while the defence hung in there at New York, any unit will start to wear down after being on the field for 70 plays like the case in Week 3. 

San Francisco 49ers

Everything is fine. Christian McCaffrey went to Germany to see a specialist for his Achilles injury, Deebo Samuel is week-to-week with is calf injury, and the 49ers have dropped two straight. Everything is fine. All kidding aside, after Week 4 any worry in 49ers land should be washed away from a huge victory over a lowly Pats team.  

First off, Brock Purdy is proving his worth. Purdy was brilliant in the 27-24 loss at Los Angeles last week with three touchdowns, 292 passing yards, and no turnovers. Jauan Jennings exploded in the process, catching all three touchdowns to go with a career-best 175 receiving yards. Now if only Brandon Aiyuk could get going; the 49ers star receiver has just 11 catches for 119 yards through the first three weeks this season. Tight end George Kittle (hamstring) is on track to return to action this weekend too after sitting out with injury in Week 3. 

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. 49ers?

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