Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes took a devastating blow with last week’s 26-24 loss in Dallas that gave Atlanta the edge at the top of the NFC South standings. There are plenty of scenarios that see the Bucs make or miss the playoffs, but the only thing that matters right now is they need to win on Sunday.

The Panthers aren’t a playoff team, but they have shown significant growth in the second half of the season. Carolina will be looking to play spoiler for the second week in a row after eliminating Arizona from the playoffs with a 36-30 Week 16 victory.

Tampa Bay is a heavy eight-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 48.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Buccaneers have won the last four head-to-heads, including a 26-23 overtime decision back in Week 13. The loss really stung Carolina as it guaranteed the Panthers will finish 2024 with a seventh straight losing season.

At 4-11, Carolina will almost certainly finished dead last in the NFC South. It’s a different story for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are even with the Falcons for the division lead at 8-7, but Atlanta holds the tiebreaker. Tampa will give up the division this week with a loss plus a Falcons win. Keep in mind, based on standings this year, only one team from the NFC South will make the playoffs.

The Panthers have been an absolutely brutal road team over the last couple of years, going 1-14 straight up in their last 15 away dates. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has won eight of their last nine games against Carolina, including five straight at home.

Overall, the Bucs are the stronger cover option this year at 9-6 against the spread (Panthers are 7-8 ATS), but it’s Carolina that has been hotter lately, covering in six of their last seven games.

Both teams are trending toward higher scoring contests. Tampa Bay has hit the Over in nine of their last 12 games and the Panthers have finished above the number in six of their last seven.

Carolina Panthers

A lot of Carolina’s recent turnaround can be attributed to Bryce Young, who threw for 158 yards and two TDs last week, while adding another 68 rushing yards and a score on the ground. One of the reasons Young has thrived has been Canadian running back Chuba Hubbard, who racked up 152 rushing yards (6.1 per carry) and two TDs last week. Hubbard’s coverage has opened up passing and running lanes for Young to exploit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield has come back to life for the Buccaneers over the last two weeks and they’ll need him to stay hot. Mayfield completed 72.1 per cent of his passes against Dallas and 81.5 per cent two weeks ago against the Chargers. In those two games, he’s thrown for 591 yards, six TDs and just two interceptions. I think Mayfield cooks against a Panthers team allowing a league-worst 29.9 points per game.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Panthers vs. Buccaneers?