NFL
Mike Schultz
January 11, 2017

Packers vs. Cowboys Point Spread: NFC Divisional Round Odds

The No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, have been one of the most compelling teams in the league this season, with MVP-level play on display from rookies Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott. They’ll be hosting the Green Bay Packers, coming to Dallas on a roll, with a quarterback riding a hot streak that has him playing the best football of his career. Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, Jordy Nelson, was injured last week and is unlikely for this game, which has contributed to Green Bay being listed as +4.5 underdogs. Some experts suggest that in a matchup like this, playoff experience, even with injuries, outweighs regular season success at the hands of talented yet unseasoned rookies. Sports Interaction’s NFL playoff odds have the Cowboys priced as -195 favorites.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Point spread:Cowboys -5

Over/under: 52.5/p>

Date: Sunday, January 15, 2017 4:40PM

Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas TX.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have fought their way to the Divisional Round with a seven game win streak that started in November, after Aaron Rodgers, a soothsayer, foretold of “running the table” towards the postseason. Since then, he’s thrown for 19 touchdowns with zero interceptions. Last week, he solved the Giant’s defense, statistically one of the best in the league, throwing for 362 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll be asked to do it again this weekend against a considerably weaker defensive line in Dallas. Rodgers’ play in the pocket and his ability to extend plays will provide ample challenges for the Cowboy’s secondary.

The Packers have some glaring holes to fill for this game, and one of them is their own secondary, which has been plagued with injuries down the stretch. Then, there’s the very likely absence of Jordy Nelson, who took a massive hit in the game against New York which resulted in a rib injury. Coach Mike McCarthy has been vague on Nelson’s status, telling press that if on “Saturday if he can practice, he may have a chance. We’re not going to do anything until Saturday. I’ll know more probably on Friday.”

Without Nelson in the mix, Rodgers will have to rely on Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, who combined for 241 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the game against the Giants, and helped pull the team out of a slow start. Cobb was on the receiving end of Rodgers’ third Hail Mary TD pass of the last two seasons during the game against New York, a play which set the tone for the rest of the game, as the Packers proceeded to run the Giants out of Titletown with a 38-13 win.

As is often the case, this game will be a quarterback showdown between Rodgers and Prescott. Aaron Rodgers can take over a game, but if the Packers’ erratic defense isn’t up to the task of stopping Prescott and Elliot, this could go to the Cowboys. The Packers slightly improved defensive unit has allowed 13 or less points in 4 of their last 7 games.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have already beaten Green Bay this season, when they fully controlled the game and beat the Pack 30-16 in October during their 11-game win streak. Rookie QB Prescott went 18-of-27 for 247 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Ezekiel Elliott carried 28 times for 157 yards. That loss started the Packers’ losing streak which went on for a full month.

The Cowboys closed out the regular season with the 5th best offense in the league, averaging 377 yards per game. They’ve also had a week off to prepare for the Divisional round game at home. The Cowboys were 26th in the league this season in passing yards allowed per game. Dak Prescott is completing 67.8% of his passes for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Dallas is gunning for their first conference championship since 1995, and they’ll have a stable of talent to do it with. Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrance Williams, and Cole Beasley will be doing everything they can to take advantage of that problematic Packers secondary. Beasley and Bryant have combined for 1,629 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns and Witten has 69 receptions. Their defensive issues mirror the Packers, however, and they’ve lost DE Randy Gregory to a suspension. CB Morris Claiborne is expected to return from a groin injury for this game.

The Packers will be focused on shutting down the league leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliot, which means that this could be a huge game for Dez Bryant, who’ll no doubt want to avenge the now infamous non-catch in Green Bay two years ago, a ruled drop that pretty much finished the season for the Cowboys. If he and Prescott can build on their slowly developing chemistry and make some massive plays, they’ll be able to take this one.

Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction

So much about this game is a toss up. They’re equally matched, so it may very well come down to playoff experience, in which case, take the Packers to cover the spread at + 4.5.