NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Since 1990, at least four teams every season have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the postseason the year before. This season, six teams accomplished the feat in Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, the LA Rams and Pittsburgh. Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Saturday
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans, Saturday
These are two of four active NFL franchises to never play in a Super Bowl, and that’s unlikely to change this postseason. The Texans might be the biggest surprise team in the NFL as CJ Stroud had one of the great seasons ever for a rookie quarterback – maybe the best one. The Texans won the AFC South with a win this past Saturday over Indianapolis and Jacksonville losing Sunday at Tennessee. Cleveland has had to use a whopping five starting QBs this season due to injury, although the fifth was Sunday simply because it was a meaningless game in Cincinnati as the Browns rested most starters. Cleveland won in Houston on Christmas Eve, 36-22, behind a franchise-record 265 yards receiving by Amari Cooper.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday
The current forecast for Saturday night in KC is a low of minus-2 degrees. Miami has never won a playoff game with a temperature below 46 degrees, and QB Tua Tagovailoa (who is from Hawaii) is 0-4 in his regular-season career when kickoff temps are 45 degrees or colder. The Fins could have avoided this by winning Sunday night at home vs. Buffalo to claim the AFC East but lost 21-14 to become a wild card team. The Chiefs were AFC West champs yet again, although their offence was nowhere near what it has been in previous seasons under Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City beat Miami, 21-14, in Germany in Week 9. A big story here will be the return of Dolphins star WR Tyreek Hill to Kansas City for the first time since being traded by the Chiefs.
Pick ATS: Kansas City (buy down to -3)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, Sunday
Pittsburgh won at nothing-to-play for Baltimore on Saturday but still needed help to get a wild card spot and got it Sunday when Jacksonville finished its late-season collapse with a loss in Jacksonville. That win over the Ravens was costly, though, as pass-rusher and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain and will not play in this game barring a minor miracle. Watt led the NFL with 19 sacks this season. Buffalo win the AFC East and earned a No. 2 seed with a win Sunday night in Miami. With a loss, the Bills would have had to return right back to Miami on Wild Card Weekend. These teams didn’t play in the regular season.
Point spread: Bills -10
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (buy up to +10.5)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday
Green Bay earned a wild card spot Sunday with a 17-9 win over Chicago to close the season on a three-game winning streak. The questions about whether Jordan Love is the QB of the future are over. He is. Love threw for 316 yards and two scores vs. the Bears and has seven TDs and no picks during the winning streak. Dallas simply had to win at tanking Washington on Sunday to win the NFC East and did easily, 38-10, behind four Dak Prescott TD passes. He led the NFL in that category. The Cowboys have won 16 straight games at home. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy faces off against his former Packers team. They didn’t play in the regular season.
Point spread: Cowboys -7.5
Pick ATS: Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, Sunday
Sunday night game. On Jan. 31, 2021, the Lions traded their starting quarterback and former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford to the Rams for their starting QB and former No. 1 overall pick in Jard Goff. It has worked out great for both franchises, and Stafford returns to Detroit for the first time. It’s Detroit’s first home playoff game since following the 1993 season so it will be a madhouse at Ford Field, which wasn’t around way back then. Detroit might be without stellar rookie tight end Sam LaPorta as he was hurt in Sunday’s meaningless game. LaPorta had arguably the best season ever for a rookie TE.
Point spread: Lions -3
Pick ATS: Detroit (buy down to -2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday
No playoff team looks worse right now than the Eagles, who were 10-1 but lost five of their final six. They somewhat went half-speed in Sunday’s loss to the Giants and may have paid for it with star WR AJ Brown going down with a knee injury and QB Jalen Hurts appearing to dislocate a finger on his throwing hand. Safety Sydney Brown suffered a season-ending injury. The Bucs won the NFC South for a third straight season as QB Baker Mayfield had a much better season than expected and probably will have to be re-signed now. It was expected that the former No. 1 overall pick would be just a one-year stop-gap. Philadelphia won 25-11 at Tampa Bay on Monday night in Week 3.
Point spread: Eagles -2.5
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
