NFL Week 9 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 01, 2021

How will Tuesday's NFL trade deadline impact point spreads in Week 9?

Four teams on the bye in Week 9, all from the NFC: Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Washington – only the Bucs are any good. Also keep in mind the NFL Trade Deadline is Tuesday. Here’s a quick look at all Week 9 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts, Thursday

Every team in the NFL plays on Thursday at least once and that’s why we are being force-fed the awful Jets on TNF this week. New York did pull a major upset on Sunday, however, behind unlikely hero Mike White. The 2018 fifth-round pick by the Cowboys got his first NFL start with rookie No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson out injured (Wilson won’t play here, either) and threw for 405 yards and three scores in knocking off the Bengals. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in OT at home to the Titans as QB Carson Wentz had two crushing interceptions, both very much his fault.

Point spread: Colts -10.5

Pick ATS: Indianapolis

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Not long ago, this rivalry was unwatchable but now both are good teams and it’s important in the AFC North. Cincinnati perhaps was looking ahead to this game Sunday as it was shocked as a double-digit favourite at the New York Jets, 34-31. Joe Burrow threw for three TDs, but the defence was a huge disappointment. Cleveland was upset 15-10 at home by Pittsburgh as Browns QB Baker Mayfield tries to play through a badly injured left (non-throwing) shoulder.

Point spread: Bengals -2.5

Pick ATS: Cincinnati

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys

In a bit of a surprise, the Cowboys played without quarterback Dak Prescott on Sunday night due to a calf injury but managed to upset the Vikings, 20-16, with Cooper Rush getting his first career start. Rush threw for 325 yards and two TDs – hadn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2017 — but Prescott should be back this week. Denver ended a four-game slide with a 17-10 home win over Washington, blocking two WFT field goals. Star pass-rusher Von Miller was out due to an ankle injury.

Point spread: Cowboys -7.5

Pick ATS: Dallas if Prescott plays

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins

Will Deshaun Watson be a member of the Dolphins for this game? Otherwise, it’s the Garbage Bowl of the week. Houston has lost seven straight and six of those by double digits. The Texans might get back starting QB Tyrod Taylor this week from injury. While Houston was supposed to be lousy, the Dolphins were supposed to be good and also have dropped seven in a row. Miami didn’t lose seven games all of last season.

Point spread: Dolphins -7

Pick ATS: Miami (alternate line of -6.5)

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

The Saints lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston to a knee injury in Sunday’s win over the Bucs and it’s expected to be season-ending. Drew Brees already has said he will not be coming out of retirement so it should be Taysom Hill starting this one if he’s fully recovered from a concussion. If not, Trevor Siemian would get the call and he played well in relief of Winston on Sunday. Atlanta’s top receiver Calvin Ridley has stepped away from the sport to focus on his mental health. The Falcons were upset 19-13 without him against Carolina on Sunday.

Point spread: Saints -5.5

Pick ATS: New Orleans

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants

The Raiders come off their bye. Most expected them to fall apart in the wake of the Jon Gruden resignation scandal, but Vegas is 2-0 without its former coach. Short week for the Giants after visiting (and no doubt losing) at the Chiefs on Monday to conclude Week 8. Top Giants running back Saquon Barkley missed another game injured and is probably not going to be back Sunday.

Point spread: Raiders -3

Pick ATS: Las Vegas (alternate line of -2.5)

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

Carolina may have a quarterback problem with Sam Darnold being knocked out of Sunday’s win in Atlanta due to a concussion. Former XFL star PJ Walker would start this week if Darnold can’t … and assuming the Panthers don’t trade for Deshaun Watson. New England was a 27-24 upset winner at the Chargers on Sunday. The Pats traded cornerback and 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore to Carolina a few weeks ago.

Point spread: Patriots -3

Pick ATS: New England (alternate line of -2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

If this game was in Buffalo, the spread would be north of 20. The Bills came out of their bye Sunday and had little trouble beating Miami 26-11. Buffalo scored 23 points over its final four possessions. Jacksonville entered its bye with a bit of momentum, snapping a 20-game losing streak in Week 6, but the Jags were completely flat Sunday out of that bye with a 31-7 loss in Seattle. Star running back James Robinson injured his heel, but apparently it was nothing serious so he might be able to play.

Point spread: Bills -14.5

Pick ATS: Jacksonville

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore comes off its bye week and entered it off a shockingly one-sided home loss to Cincinnati. Minnesota caught a break Sunday night in facing the Cowboys without Dak Prescott but still lost 20-16. Some very questionable play-calling by the Vikings, and Coach Mike Zimmer is on a scalding-hot seat right now. The Vikes had only 278 yards against a defence that was allowing the second-highest yards-per-play average in the NFL entering the week.

Point spread: Ravens -5

Pick ATS: Baltimore

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles came out of its bye and was upset 27-24 at home by Dallas on Sunday. Justin Herbert, so good early in the second, had a rough game for the second straight outing in completing barely 50 per cent of his throws with two picks, one returned for a touchdown. The Eagles pummelled the winless Lions 44-6 despite playing without top running back Miles Sanders. Philly rushed for 236 yards anyways.

Point spread: Chargers -2.5

Pick ATS: Los Angeles

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Short week for Kansas City off hosting the Giants on Monday to conclude Week 8. This looked like one of the marquee matchups of the season and a potential Super Bowl preview between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Maybe that will happen, but the Chiefs have underachieved so far. The Packers won their seventh in a row last Thursday at Arizona, 24-21, on a shocking last-second interception by Rasul Douglas. That game should have gone to overtime at a minimum. Green Bay was without star receiver Davante Adams in COVID protocols. Too early to know if he can play here.

Point spread: Chiefs -2.5

Pick ATS: Green Bay (alternate line of +3.5 if Adams plays)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Arizona QB Kyler Murray threw an interception in the Green Bay end zone with 15 seconds left as the Cards became the last team to lose this season, 24-21, last Thursday. Murray and receiver AJ Green were not on the same page as Green wasn’t even looking for the ball. Still, you can’t throw a pick there when a chip-shot field goal sends it to overtime. Murray did look banged up afterward so monitor that. San Francisco snapped a four-game losing streak with a 33-22 win in Chicago on Sunday. Rookie Elijah Mitchell rushed for 137 yards and a TD.

Point spread: Cardinals -2

Pick ATS: Arizona (as long as Murray is OK)

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday night game. Potentially devastating news for the Titans as superstar running back Derrick Henry, who won the NFL rushing title each of the past two seasons and was well on his way to winning another, suffered a foot injury in Sunday’s win at Indianapolis that is feared to be season ending. He is their offence. This spread rose 1.5 points with the news Monday morning. The Rams had a cakewalk in Houston on Sunday.

Point spread: Rams -7.5

Pick ATS: Los Angeles

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday

Two of the NFL’s marquee franchises. Chicago played Sunday without head coach Matt Nagy, who was in the COVID protocols, and actually looked much better offensively without him in a 33-22 home loss to the Niners. Rookie QB Justin Fields has his best game in throwing for a TD and rushing for 103 yards and a score. Pittsburgh has won three in a row following a 15-10 upset in Cleveland on Sunday. Kicker Chris Boswell missed the second half with a concussion as he was destroyed on a hit while trying a trick play. Here’s guessing the team doesn’t put Boswell in that position again.

Point spread: Steelers -6.5

Pick ATS: Pittsburgh