NFL Week 7 Odds Report: Backup Quarterbacks Meet In Chicago

Let’s address one spread change and a couple of totals that have moved for Week 7 and explain why. 

Raiders at Bears (total 42 to 37.5)

This might be both the most and least interesting game of Week 7 because it will feature 38-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer at quarterback for Las Vegas and 23-year-old rookie Tyson Bagent for Chicago because Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields, respectively, are both out. What do Hoyer and Bagent have in common? Both were undrafted out of college. Hoyer has made millions of dollars largely holding a clipboard in this league since 2009. Bagent set numerous NCAA records at Division II Shepherd University in West Virginia, including the most TD passes in history – all divisions. His last start came against something called the Colorado School of Mines last December in a 44-13 loss.

Bagent is a dual-threat QB who did look good this preseason to surprisingly win the backup job but also had two devastating turnovers in relief of Fields in last week’s loss to Minnesota. This will mark the first matchup of undrafted free-agent QBs in the NFL since Week 14 in 2018, and Bagent will become the first undrafted rookie from a Division II school to start at QB in the NFL since the NCAA split into three divisions in 1973. You probably get why this total has dropped. 

Commanders at Giants (total 41.5 to 37.5)

You can somewhat loop this game in with Bills at Patriots in that the weather in the U.S. Northeast doesn’t look all that lovely Sunday. Actually, the forecast for this one is better now than it was earlier in the week as the rain should stop Saturday, but it will be chilly and windy. There’s also the fact the Giants are truly horrific offensively. They have scored more than 16 points just once and that was in a 31-28 comeback win at a bad Arizona team in Week 2 when New York trailed 20-0 at the half. That struggling offence took another major hit this week when starting guard Shane Lemieux suffered ruptured biceps Wednesday in practice. He’s done for the year. That O-Line has been obliterated by injuries all year.

Starting QB Daniel Jones missed last Sunday’s loss in Buffalo but might return. Normally, that would likely mean the totals would rise but not with how Jones has been playing. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor is probably the better option right now and nearly led an upset of the Bills. Although we should note Jones is 5-1-1 in career vs. Washington and 17-30 against all other teams. New York has an NFL-worst minus-96 point differential, the worst by team coming off playoff win in NFL history. Rather strangely, Washington is averaging 30.0 points on the road this season compared to 14.3 at home.

Browns at Colts (+2 to +3)

I’d like to tell you what’s going on with Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, but I don’t think anyone knows. He was medically cleared to play Week 4 but chose not to because of a shoulder problem. Out of their bye in Week 6, it was assumed Watson would play and he still didn’t. Cleveland stunned unbeaten San Francisco 19-17 anyways with backup PJ Walker playing solidly and the defence playing outstanding yet again. Cleveland has allowed the fewest total yards through five team teams since the 1971 Colts and fewest yards per play since the 2008 Steelers. Which QB will be under center Sunday? No idea.

The former XFL star Walker is a surprising 5-3 in his career as a starter now. On Wednesday, Watson said he wasn’t sure when he might return. Then he was at practice Thursday. That news pushed this up to Browns -3 even though Watson has not been very good even when 100 per cent healthy. Cleveland is averaging just 19.0 ppg in Watson’s starts dating to 2022. That team PPG ranks 32nd of 46 QBs to start five or more or games since the start of last season. It will be backup Gardner Minshew under centre again for the Colts with rookie Anthony Richardson officially out for the season.