NFL Week 18 Odds Report: Playoff Teams Are Resting Starters
Five playoff berths remain unclaimed, the most entering the final week since there were seven in 2020. And four division titles are undecided, the most entering a season finale since there were also four in 2014. Here are some games that have seen a significant odds shift.
Browns at Bengals (-3 to -7)
This is one of a few games in Week 18 that has zero bearing on the postseason because the Browns are locked in as the AFC’s top wild card team (No. 5 seed) and will play on Wild Card Weekend at the AFC South champion, most likely Jacksonville but also possibly Houston or Indianapolis. Thus, Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski, the overwhelming betting favourite for NFL Coach of the Year, will not play red-hot quarterback Joe Flacco, which may cost the former Super Bowl MVP a shot at NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Apparently Stefanski wants to keep backup PJ Walker healthy, too, because journeyman Jeff Driskel will start. Cleveland signed Driskel to their active roster Dec. 30. He was on the Arizona Cardinals’ practice squad earlier this season.
The 30-year-old Driskel is 1-9 in his NFL career as starter and his first five came in 2018 with Cincinnati (0-4 record). Driskel will be the fifth Browns starting QB this season, and the team still has 11 wins. Stefanski deserves Coach of the Year. Cleveland is the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs with four QBs making multiple starts. Any remotely injured Browns like No. 1 wideout Amari Cooper also will sit out. Bengals coach Zac Taylor says his guys are playing to win, and end Trey Hendrickson has individual reason to care as he’s tied with Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt for the NFL sack lead with 17. No Bengal has won an official sacks title.
Steelers at Ravens (+2 to +4)
Baltimore is locked into the AFC’s top seed and there was some thought Coach John Harbaugh might play his starters for the first half just to avoid them sitting out until the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Jan. 20 or 21. When the Ravens were in a similar spot in 2019, they rested all their guys in a meaningless regular-season finale and were totally flat in a Divisional Round loss to Tennessee. Harbaugh has announced that Lamar Jackson, who is a lock to win his second MVP Award, will sit out and presumably that means most other guys will as well. Tyler Huntley isn’t a bad No. 2, and I wonder if his time is limited to ensure he’s healthy for the postseason just in case. Huntley has a 3-5 career record as starter and 1-2 vs. Pittsburgh.
The Steelers need a win and help to get a wild card spot, so everyone who is healthy will play. Mason Rudolph starts a QB again and has energized that offence in back-to-back wins. Starter Kenny Pickett is healthy enough to return but will be the No. 2. Monitor that situation in the offseason. Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt is tied for the NFL lead with 17 sacks and looks to become the first player ever to win that title three times. His retired brother JJ Watt won it twice.
Chiefs at Chargers (-1.5 to -3.5)
Kansas City has won its eight straight AFC West title (second longest streak in any division by any team) and is locked into the third seed, and thus Patrick Mahomes and others will not play at the Chargers, who are playing out yet another disappointing season under a lame-duck interim coach and with their backup QB in Easton Stick. Kansas City has so rarely played on Wild Card Weekend since Mahomes took over (AFC’s third seed is team’s worst under him) that this is not a surprise to keep him healthy. A start and a win Sunday would have made Mahomes the fastest to 75 wins by a starting QB since 1950.
Haven’t heard yet on Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce, but he might play briefly as Kelce is 16 yards shy of his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. That would twice as many 1,000-yard receiving seasons as any other tight end in NFL history. Kelce might be distracted by Taylor Swift as he has six straight games without a receiving TD and nine in a row held under 100 yards.