NFL Week 17 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
There is a special Saturday game as well but no Monday game because that’s New Year’s Day and belongs to college football. Here’s a quick look at Week 17 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, Thursday
The Jets did activate Aaron Rodgers off injured reserve last week, but he won’t play again this season. It was simply a formality to allow him to practice with the team the rest of the way. Trevor Siemian made his first start of the season Sunday and the Jets won in the final seconds over Washington. Siemian likely will start again Thursday. Cleveland could clinch an AFC wild card spot with a win and some help. Joe Flacco has been playing out of his mind in the team’s three-game winning streak.
Pick ATS: Cleveland (buy down to -6.5)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, Saturday
Very important matchup in the NFC playoff race. Detroit clinched its first division title since 1993 with a win at Minnesota on Sunday and still has a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Dallas has clinched at minimum a wild card spot and is battling Philadelphia for the NFC East title, but the Cowboys’ walk-off loss in Miami on Sunday likely means Dallas will have to settle for second again. The Cowboys, though, have looked invincible at home this season.
Pick ATS: Dallas
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Bill Belichick used to own Buffalo, but Tom Brady had just a little bit to do with that. This surely will be Belichick’s final game in the rivalry. The Pats’ best and most unlikely win of the season was 29-25 over the Bills in Week 7. Mac Jones had perhaps his best game of the year with 272 yards passing and two scores but has been benched for weeks. Bailey Zappe led the Pats to an upset win in Denver on Sunday, which only hurt the team’s draft position. Buffalo won its third in a row on Saturday, 24-22 at the Chargers on a 29-yard field goal with 28 seconds left.
Pick ATS: New England
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Both teams are likely to have new head coaches next season – and don’t be shocked if Chicago trades QB Justin Fields to the Falcons this offseason if the Bears get the top pick in the 2024 draft and opt to take Caleb Williams. Atlanta badly needs a QB and Fields is from Georgia. Makes too much sense not to happen, really. Embattled Falcons coach Arthur Smith decided to give veteran Taylor Henicke another look as the starting QB on Sunday, and he led a 29-10 home win over Indy to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive. Chicago won for the third time in four games Sunday, 27-16 over Arizona. Fields threw for a score and rushed for one.
Pick ATS: Chicago (buy down to -2.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders are making a case for interim coach Antonio Pierce to get the full-time job as they kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 20-14 upset in Kansas City on Christmas even though QB Aidan O’Connell finished with just 62 yards passing and didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter. Both Las Vegas TDs were by the defence. The Colts’ playoff hopes are still alive despite an ugly 29-10 loss in Atlanta. QB Gardner Minshew was sacked six times. WR Michael Pittman (concussion, shoulder) and RB Zack Moss (forearm) did not play.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis (buy down to -2.5)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
The Tommy DeVito experiment might be over in New York as he struggled massively on Monday in a 33-25 loss at the Eagles, with the former cult hero pulled for veteran Tyrod Taylor. Coach Brain Daboll hasn’t decided who will start this week as the Giants play out the string, but Taylor played light years better vs. Philly. The Rams currently sit sixth in the NFC and have won five of six with Matthew Stafford playing like an MVP candidate.
Pick ATS: New York
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona is simply playing out the string and has a shot at the No. 1 overall pick if it loses out. Philadelphia controls its destiny to win the NFC East and still has a chance at the conference’s No. 1 seed. The Eagles snapped a three-game skid Monday with a 33-25 win over the Giants – although allowing 25 points to a bad offence is a bit concerning for that struggling defence.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South-leading Tampa Bay looks for the season sweep as it won easily in New Orleans, 26-9, in Week 4 as Baker Mayfield vastly outplayed Derek Carr. Mayfield is really playing well in Tampa Bay’s four-game winning streak to the point the team might re-sign him. The former No. 1 overall pick was expected to be a one-off this season. The Saints can kiss their division hopes goodbye with a loss but are on extra rest after losing 30-22 at the Rams on Thursday in Week 16.
Pick ATS: Tampa Bay (buy down to -2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Possible trap game for the Niners off losing at home to Baltimore, 33-19, on Monday night to conclude Week 16 in a possible Super Bowl 58 preview. That ended San Francisco’s six-game winning streak and probably ended QB Brock Purdy’s chances to win MVP as he was the favourite but has fallen way down the board after four picks in the loss. Washington has lost six in a row and allowed at least 28 points in each. That team will have a major makeover this offseason.
Pick ATS: Washington (buy up to +14)
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bears could earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft if Carolina loses here and Arizona wins in Philadelphia (unlikely). The Panthers played their best offensive game of the season Sunday but lost 33-30 at home to Green Bay. Rookie QB Bryce Young finally looked like the No. 1 overall pick as he threw for 312 yards and two scores. The Jaguars have lost four in a row, and QB Trevor Lawrence keeps getting hurt as his shoulder is now bothering him. But Jacksonville still controls its destiny to win the AFC South.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville (buy down to -6.5)
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Crucial matchup for the AFC’s top seed. Baltimore earns it with a victory and made a bold statement Monday night with a 33-19 dominating victory at scorching-hot San Francisco, which had won six in a row by double digits. The Niners remain the overall favourites to win Super Bowl 58, but the Ravens are now right behind and QB Lamar Jackson is the new NFL MVP favourite. Miami is in the playoffs but hasn’t clinched the AFC East yet. It would with a victory.
Pick ATS: Baltimore
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
The Texans were very short-handed, including missing star rookie QB CJ Stroud, when they visited the Titans in Week 15 and rallied for a 19-16 OT win that might be the difference between Houston making the playoffs as opposed to missing. Stroud also missed this past Sunday’s 36-22 home loss to Cleveland but should return this week as Houston battles for a wild card spot and the AFC South title. Titans rookie QB Will Levis was out injured Sunday and Tennessee lost 20-17 to Seattle with Ryan Tannehill under centre.
Pick ATS: Houston (buy down to -3)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Two of the NFL’s longest-tenured coaches in Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Seattle’s Pete Carroll, both of whom have won a Super Bowl. Not out of the question both decide to step down this offseason. Pittsburgh is still alive for a wild card spot after a 34-11 home win over Cincinnati on Saturday with third-string QB Mason Rudolph making his first start of the season and likely to make another this week. Seattle has won back-to-back games by the same 20-17 score to keep its wild card hopes alive.
Pick ATS: Seattle (buy down to -3)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Chargers’ season essentially ended in a 24-7 home loss to Denver in Week 14 as Justin Herbert suffered a season-ending finger injury. Los Angeles is 0-2 with Easton Stick starting but played well in a 24-22 home loss to Buffalo on Saturday. Denver’s playoff hopes are on life support following a 26-23 home upset loss to New England on Sunday, simply not a loss the Broncos could afford.
Pick ATS: Denver
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Looked to be one of the AFC’s biggest games of the season when the schedule was released, but Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury changed that. The teams played in the past two AFC title games, both in Kansas City, and split them. Seems every time that Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet, the game ends in a last-second field goal. Cincinnati fell out of an AFC playoff spot in Week 16 with a loss in Pittsburgh. All-Pro receiver Ja’Marr Chase was out injured and is iffy here. Kansas City just hasn’t looked right offensively at times this season and was stunned at home by the Raiders on Monday, 20-14. The Chiefs still are in control to win the AFC West, but they will not be the conference’s top seed yet again.
Pick ATS: Kansas City (buy down to -6.5)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday night game and a bit surprised this wasn’t flexed out, although both still have NFC wild card hopes. Minnesota beat the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 8, 24-10. Kirk Cousins had two TD passes before leaving with what proved to be a season-ending injury. The Vikings have used a few guys since then with Nick Mullens starting the past two weeks. But he has six picks in those games so Coach Kevin O’Connell might go back to fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall for his second career start. His first in Atlanta in Week 9 didn’t last long as Hall left with a concussion. Green Bay was lucky to win 33-30 at Carolina on Sunday as the defence of embattled coordinator Joe Barry continued to struggle. He will not be back next season.
Pick ATS: Minnesota