NFL Week 17 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

The penultimate week of the regular season brings a Christmas triple header for the last Thursday games of the season as well as the Monday night finale, although there will be one MNF game in the Wild-Card round.

Both NFC East clubs are eliminated from playoff contention; the Cowboys were eliminated in Week 16 and got dominated at home by the Chargers, 34-17. Since winning three in a row and providing some hope, Dallas has lost three straight and allowing 37.3 points per in that skid. Washington lost its fifth home game in a row last Saturday, 29-18 to Philadelphia. The Commanders try to avoid a sweep here as  they were crushed 44-22 in Arlington in Week 7.

Pick ATS: Washington (alt +7)

Minnesota is long eliminated from the playoffs and Detroit is now in major jeopardy of missing out after a wild and stunning 29-24 home loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday. That snapped a streak of 15 straight wins following a loss, which was tied for second-longest in NFL history. The Lions are eliminated with a loss or Packers win Saturday vs. Baltimore. Detroit was also upset at home by Minnesota, 27-24, in Week 9. Vikes QB JJ McCarthy  had one of his best games as a pro with two passing TDs and one rushing.

Pick ATS: Minnesota

Very strange to see Kansas City playing out the string. The Chiefs clearly had no interest in Sunday’s game at horrible Tennessee, losing 26-9. Gardner Minshew took over as the starting QB with Patrick Mahomes lost for the year, but then Minshew suffered his own knee injury. Complete unknown Chris Oladokun was 11-for-16 for 111 yards in relief and presumably starts here. Denver’s 11-game winning streak was snapped in a 34-20 home loss to Jacksonville. It was the Broncos’ first loss this year by more than three points. They beat the Chiefs, 22-19, in Week 11.

Pick ATS: Kansas City (alt +13)

Huge in the AFC playoff race. Both hold Wild-Card spots currently but could win their respective divisions and even perhaps earn the AFC’s top seed, although that’s quite unlikely for Houston. It won an NFL-best seventh straight game Sunday but didn’t play all that well vs. the Raiders. Los Angeles had a dominant win in Dallas. The Chargers eye some payback here as they lost a Wild-Card game last season in Houston, 32-12, as Justin Herbert had four picks.

Pick ATS: Los Angeles

Baltimore can no longer earn an AFC Wild-Card spot and no longer controls its AFC North destiny after a devastating 28-24 home loss to New England on Sunday night, blowing a 24-13 lead with about 10 minutes left. Lamar Jackson was knocked out with a back injury in the second quarter. Too early to know if it will be him or backup Tyler Huntley here, but the short week doesn’t help. Green Bay somehow blew a 16-6 lead with about three minutes left in regulation last Saturday night in Chicago and lost 22-16 in OT. QB Jordan Love left in the second quarter with a concussion so too early to know on him, either.

Pick ATS: Green Bay (if Love plays)

Both are eliminated from playoff contention. The Bengals played one of their best games of the year Sunday in a 45-21 win in Miami to improve to 4-2 this season when Joe Burrow plays compared to 1-8 without. Burrow became the third-fastest player in NFL history (75th game) to reach 150 career TD passes. Arizona started this year at 2-0 but is 1-12 since and on a seven-game skid. In  Sunday’s 26-19 loss to Atlanta, the Cards scored on each of their first four drives but just three points on the final five.

Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alt -6.5)

We may see NFL history in this one as Cleveland’s Myles Garrett is up to 22 sacks, a half shy of tying the single-season record. That’s about all we can say positive about the sorry Browns right now. Pittsburgh got a shocking win in Detroit on Sunday and now would win the AFC North by winning out. The Steelers also would win it if the Ravens lose on Saturday night, so it’s probably wise to wait on that result for this game as then the club might rest Aaron Rodgers and others. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland, 23-9, in Week 6.

Pick ATS: Wait on Ravens result

Both teams long eliminated from playoff contention. We haven’t had many rookie quarterback matchups this year but should here with second-rounder Tyler Shough against No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward of the Titans. Tennessee had been winless at home until Sunday’s  26-9 upset of Kansas City. That was Ward’s first game with at least at least 200 yards passing and two TDs. The Saints won their third in a row, 26-9 over the Jets. Shough’s four wins are a franchise record for a rookie QB.

Pick ATS: Tennessee (alt +3)

Short week for Indianapolis after hosting San Francisco on Monday night; a loss there and the Colts’ playoff hopes are all but finished. Jacksonville is playing as well as any team on a six-game winning streak. Trevor Lawrence had four TD passes in Sunday’s upset in in Denver and leads the NFL in total touchdowns (19) and passer rating (108.7) during the winning streak. The Colts were pounded in Jacksonville, 36-10, in  Week 14.

Pick ATS: Jacksonville (alt -6.5)

Tampa Bay fell out of first in the NFC South with Sunday’s 23-20 loss at Carolina as Baker Mayfield threw a crushing interception in the final minute when the Bucs were nearly in field goal range. They can still win the division by winning out. The Dolphins are playing simply for pride. Coach Mike McDaniel opted to bench starting QB Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday for seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers. He had two INTs and no TDs in a 45-21 home loss to Cincinnati.

Pick ATS: Tampa Bay

New England was down 11 in Baltimore on Sunday night with about 10 minutes left but won, 28-24. The Pats had lost 41 straight games when down at least 11 in the fourth quarter. It has become the third team in  NFL history to win at least 12 games when losing at least 13 the year before and could clinch the AFC East this week. The Jets barely showed up Sunday in a blowout loss in New Orleans. And New York didn’t have a defensive interception for a 15th straight game, an NFL record.

Pick ATS: New York (alt +14)

Could be a playoff preview with each leading its division. Seattle got an incredibly unlikely win on Thursday in Week 16 over the Rams, 38-37 in OT, to take control of the NFC West for now and also control its destiny for the conference’s top seed.  The Seahawks became the first team in NFL history to win a game on an overtime two-point conversion. Carolina took sole possession of first in the NFC South with a 23-20 win over Tampa Bay and could win it this week with the right results. The Panthers are 6-1 in games decided by three or fewer points this season.

Pick ATS: Carolina

This might be one of the worst NFL matchups in modern history with both at 2-13 and on nine-game losing streaks. But the loser is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. New York tries to snap a franchise-record 13-game road losing streak.

Pick ATS: Las Vegas

Possible Super Bowl 60 preview. The Eagles clinched the NFC East with a 29-18 win over Washington on Saturday to become the first repeat champion in the division since the 2001-04 Eagles. That 20-season streak without a repeat champion had been the longest in any division in NFL/NBA/MLB/NHL history. Buffalo still has a shot at the AFC East but not a great one. It avoided an upset Sunday in Cleveland, 23-20. The Bills have become the fifth team in NFL history to win 11+ games in six straight seasons. All the others won a title in that span.

Pick ATS: Buffalo

Sunday night game. Short week for San Francisco, which played at Indianapolis on Monday night to conclude Week 16. The Niners entered that knowing that if they win out, they are NFC West champions and the conference’s top seed. That top seed is still in play for the North-leading Bears, too, after their incredible 22-16 overtime comeback win Saturday night vs. Green Bay. It was Chicago’s sixth win this season when trailing in the final two minutes of regulation, an NFL record.

Pick ATS: San Francisco

The last Monday night game of the regular season, although there will be one in the Wild-Card round. The Falcons are playing out the string for a lame-duck head coach. Tailback Bijan Robinson after another big game Sunday in a win over Arizona is on pace for 2,296 scrimmage yds, which would set a Falcons record and rank 12th-most in a season all-time. The Rams suffered a truly gut-punching loss in Seattle on Thursday in Week 16, 38-37 in OT, and lost control of the NFC West and for the conference’s top seed. In that defeat, Los Angeles became the only team since 1940(!) with at least 500 yards, three takeaways and zero turnovers in a game yet lost.

Pick ATS: Atlanta