NFL Week 16 Odds Report: Texans Likely Without CJ Stroud Again
With a win over Las Vegas on Christmas, Kansas City would its eighth straight AFC West title and earn its ninth consecutive playoff appearance, tying the Colts and Cowboys for the second-longest streak of playoff appearances in NFL history. Only the Patriots (11 seasons from 2009-19) have a longer streak. Here are three Week 16 games that have seen the odds shift.
Browns at Texans (-2 to +3)
Houston was in this space last week as it went from 1-point to 3-point underdogs in Tennessee because it was without quarterback CJ Stroud, the lock NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, due to a concussion. Generally speaking, guys/QBs only miss one week with those, but Stroud apparently will sit out again Sunday with Case Keenum set to start and that’s why this has flipped. Most expected it would be 2022 primary starter Davis Mills taking Stroud’s place in Week 15, but first-year coach DeMeco Ryans opted for the journeyman Keenum and he delivered the big comeback overtime victory. With Jacksonville losing in Week 15, Houston is now tied for first in the AFC South with the Jags and Colts. This matchup really sums up the state of NFL quarterbacking right now with the 35-year-old Keenum facing 38-year-old Joe Flacco, who has largely saved Cleveland’s season. This will be the fifth meeting between the two and first since 2018 when Flacco played for Baltimore and Keenum for Denver. Keenum has played for seven different teams – including starting two games for Cleveland from 2020-21. The winner here has a massive head-to-head tiebreaker for a possible wild card spot.
Colts at Falcons (+2 to -2.5)
Earlier this season when Falcons coach Arthur Smith benched starting quarterback Desmond Ridder and switched to competent veteran backup Taylor Heinicke, the spread also moved toward Atlanta in that first game. Obviously not usual for a spread to edge toward a club when it benches a starter, but that’s the case again here and Smith has said Heinicke won’t just return to the starter’s role this week but the rest of the way. That’s the sign of a desperate coach trying to hang onto his job, and that’s not likely because part of Smith’s job was to develop Ridder. The 2022 third-round pick is clearly not the answer. Bet the farm that the Falcons take a QB in the first round of the 2024 draft unless they trade (Justin Fields?) or sign an established one. This shift might be an overreaction, frankly. Indy is expecting No. 1 running back and former NFL rushing king Jonathan Taylor to return from thumb surgery. Both teams are alive to win their South Division and in the wild card races, although it’s probably NFC South or bust for Atlanta.
Jaguars at Bucs (+1 to -2)
Huge for both Florida teams as they co-lead their respective South divisions. Jacksonville quarterback and former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence was in major doubt in Week 15 against Baltimore with an ankle injury but played through it … and suffered a concussion in the 23-7 loss that ended the Jags’ chances of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. They had a two-game lead atop the division not long ago but now are in a three-way tie thanks to a three-game skid. We mentioned above on Houston’s CJ Stroud that QBs generally return from a concussion with just one week missed, and QBs generally do NOT play the game immediately after going in to protocol (unless after a bye). The Jags’ doctors can’t clear Lawrence from a concussion like they could an ankle as an independent doctor must do so. Journeyman CJ Beathard has been with Jacksonville for three seasons but not started with the team. He is in line to start Sunday and is 2-10 career in the NFL, all 12 games with San Francisco.