NFL Week 16 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Once the college football regular season ends, the NFL schedules a few games on Saturdays and that’s the case this week with two matchups. It’s also the penultimate regular-season week with a game on both Thursday and Monday nights.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, Thursday
Crucial game in the AFC wild-card race for these West Division teams as Kansas City already has clinched the division. The Chargers would own a massive tiebreaker by completing the season sweep as they were 23-16 winners in Denver in Week 6. The Broncos were down 23-0 in the fourth before they made it interesting. Denver moved into the AFC’s No. 6 seed with Sunday’s 31-13 win over Indianapolis but saw cornerback Patrick Surtain, maybe the NFL’s best at his position, leave injured. Los Angeles was blown out Sunday at home by Tampa Bay despite leading at the half. Justin Herbert threw his first INT since Week 2.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of -2.5)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday
Could be an AFC playoff preview. Why would two-time Super Bowl champion and NFL-best Chiefs be home underdogs? Because two-time MVP and QB Patrick Mahomes injured his ankle in Sunday’s win over Cleveland and probably will miss at least one game. His backup is Carson Wentz. Houston clinched the AFC South for a second straight year with Sunday’s win over Miami, forcing the Dolphins into four turnovers. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and QB CJ Stroud have now led a division-winning team in their rookie and sophomore seasons together — a first in NFL history.
Pick ATS: Houston (alternate line of -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, Saturday
Also could be an AFC playoff preview, and the Steelers, who are in the playoff regardless, would wrap up the AFC North title by sweeping the Ravens thanks to an 18-16 home win in Week 11 as Baltimore’s high-powered offence was largely kept in check. Chris Boswell had six field goals for Pittsburgh. But the Steelers opened the door for the division with Sunday’s 27-13 loss in Philadelphia and Baltimore easily beating the New York Giants. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson had more TD passes (five) than incompletions (four). One more victory earns Baltimore at least a wild-card spot. Pittsburgh might be without star pass-rusher TJ Watt for this one after he left Sunday’s loss injured.
Pick ATS: Baltimore
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
It’s a short week for Atlanta as it snapped a four-game skid with an ugly 15-9 win at the Raiders on Monday night. Kirk Cousins’ struggled continued as while he finally had a TD pass, he also only had 112 yards through the air and another pick. The Giants are truly pathetic as they tied a franchise-record with a ninth straight loss Sunday, 35-14 to Baltimore. QB Drew Lock, who started the last two games, was out with a heel injury. Then starter Tommy DeVito left with a concussion and was replaced by journeyman Tim Boyle. Your guess is as good as mine as to which starts here.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
This is really the latest in the season these AFC East rivals can meet without playing back-to-back weeks – they meet again in Week 18. The Patriots lost a fourth game in a row Sunday, 30-17 at Arizona, and head coach Jerod Mayo seemed to throw his offensive coordinator under the bus after. That’s worth monitoring. Buffalo QB Josh Allen probably clinched his first NFL MVP Award in Sunday’s wild 48-42 win in Detroit in a possible Super Bowl preview. Allen threw for 362 yards and two scores and rushed for two more.
Pick ATS: New England (alternate line of +14.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Bears nearly pulled off a huge upset in Detroit on Thanksgiving but poor clock management at the end cost the team a chance to win or at least send it to OT on a field goal in the 23-20 loss. Chicago coach Matt Eberflus was fired the next day as he should have been. The Lions had their franchise-record 11-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 48-42 home loss to Buffalo and lost co-No. 1 running back David Montgomery and defensive tackle Alim McNeill to season-ending injuries. Detroit still controls its destiny for the NFC North title and conference’s top seed. It’s a short week for Chicago after an eighth straight loss on Monday night, 30-12 in Minnesota. This is the team’s first home game since Eberflus was fired.
Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of -6.5)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 37-27 win at Tennessee on Sunday as Joe Burrow had his sixth straight game with at least three TD passes, the sixth-longest streak in NFL history. Cincinnati won despite four turnovers. The Browns lost their third in a row Sunday, 21-7 to Kansas City with QB Jameis Winston benched after three more picks. Not yet clear who starts this week under centre. Top running back Nick Chubb broke his foot and is done for the year. Cincinnati tries for the sweep as it won, 21-14, in Cleveland in Week 7. That was the game where original Browns starting QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line of -6.5)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ playoff hopes are in major trouble after a 31-13 loss out of their bye Sunday in Denver. RB Jonathan Taylor, a former NFL Offensive Player of the Year, rushed for 107 yards but his 41-yard TD run in the third quarter for a potential 20-7 lead was overturned on review when that showed Taylor fumbled the ball while celebrating before reaching the goal line. That’s inexcusable and turned the game completely in the Broncos’ favor. The Titans may have officially ended the Will Levis era as their starting QB when he was benched for Mason Rudolph after struggling early in Sunday’s 37-27 loss to Cincinnati. No word yet on who starts Sunday. Indy goes for the sweep of its AFC South rival as the Colts won 20-17 in Nashville in Week 6 when Joe Flacco was the team’s starting QB. Neither club reached 270 yards of offence.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Potentially the final matchup between future Hall of Fame QBs in the Rams’ Matthew Stafford and Jets’ Aaron Rodgers. They dueled plenty back in the day when Stafford was with Detroit and Rodgers in Green Bay. The Rams boosted their playoff hopes big-time with a 12-6 upset victory at San Francisco on Thursday in Week 15 in a game where the elements were a big factor. After Sunday’s results, now L.A. is tied for first in the NFC West. The Jets ended a four-game skid with a 32-25 comeback win in Jacksonville on Sunday. Rodgers had his best game of the season and is now two TD throws shy of becoming the fifth player with 500 career.
Pick ATS: New York
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Jalen Hurts vs. Jayden Daniels could be one of the great NFC rivalries going forward with both in the NFC East. Hurts has the upper hand so far on the rookie thanks to a 26-18 home win in Week 11. The star of that one was Philly running back Saquon Barkley with 146 yards and two TDS on the ground. The Eagles won their NFL-best and franchise-record 10th straight game Sunday, 27-13 over Pittsburgh and clinched a playoff spot. It would clinch the division with a win here. The Commanders came out of their bye and nearly suffered a crushing last-second loss in New Orleans but stopped a two-point PAT with no time remaining for a 20-19 victory. Washington clinched its first winning season since 2016.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (alternate line of -2.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals snapped a three-game skid and kept their NFC West title hopes alive with a 30-17 home win over New England on Sunday. Tight end Trey McBride had nine more catches and is up to 89 on the season but hasn’t scored a TD. Those are the most reception without a TD in a season in league history. Carolina was actually favoured on Sunday for the first time since 2022 but lost at home to Dallas, 30-14. Former No. 1 overall QB Bryce Young was sacked a season-high six times and had a career-high four turnovers.
Pick ATS: Carolina
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
It’s a short week for Minnesota as it won a seventh straight game Monday night, 30-12 over Chicago, to tie Detroit for the NFC North lead, although the Lions still hold the tiebreaker. The Vikings actually clinched a playoff spot Sunday when the Seahawks lost — Seattle had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-13 home loss to Green Bay and fell into a tie for first with the Rams in the NFC West. Seahawks QB Geno Smith left with a knee injury. It appears he avoided anything major, but Smith’s status for this week is certainly up in the air. Sam Howell is his backup and was brutal in relief in the loss.
Pick ATS: Seattle (if Smith plays)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
It actually would benefit both franchises to lose this truly horrid matchup to try and improve 2025 NFL Draft positioning, but the winner almost surely will not be picking No. 1 overall – it definitely won’t be the Jaguars if they win. Jacksonville suffered its NFL-high eighth one-score loss of the season on Sunday, 32-25 at home to the Jets. On the bright side, the Jags did snap an 18-game drought of not scoring a TD on their opening drive of the game. It’s a short week for Las Vegas after a 10th consecutive loss on Monday night, 15-9 at home to Minnesota. It’s team’s longest in-season losing streak since it opened the 2014 season 0-10. Third-string QB Desmond Ridders started Monday and may have to again here.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
The defending NFC champion 49ers are all but out of the playoff chase after a 12-6 home loss to the Rams on Thursday in Week 15. Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the elements with just 142 yards and a pick. Former Pro Bowl linebacker De’Vondre Campbell literally quit on the team, declining to enter the game when asked. He has been suspended the rest of the season. It all seems to be coming apart in San Francisco. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are in major trouble, too, after a 20-12 loss in Houston on Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa had been one of the NFL’s best QBs since returning from injury but not Sunday as he was picked three times. Since the start of last season, the Dolphins are 1-10 vs teams that enter with a winning record and 16-4 vs. all other teams.
Pick ATS: Miami
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday night game. Tampa Bay controls its destiny to win the NFC South for a fourth straight season after a 40-17 win at the Chargers on Sunday despite trailing 17-13 at the half. Baker Mayfield’s career year continued with 288 yards passing and four TDs, his third game this season with at least 275 passing and four scores, behind only MVP candidate Lamar Jackson of Baltimore. Tampa Bay was without its top three safeties due to injury. Dallas was a short dog Sunday in Carolina but won for the third time in five games, 30-14 to stay alive barely in the NFC wild-card race. The Cowboys are 5-2 away but 1-6 at home.
Pick ATS: Dallas
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, Monday
Despite playing without injured No. 1 QB Derek Carr and top WR Chris Olave, the Saints nearly stormed back at home for an upset win over Washington on Sunday by pulling to within 20-19 on a TD as time expired. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi opted to try for the 2-point PAT and the win, but it failed. Kudos to him for not just kicking the PAT and going to OT in an otherwise lost season. Not yet clear if Olave or Carr will get back this week. Green Bay is on the verge of clinching a playoff spot after a very impressive 30-13 win in Seattle on Sunday night. It was the team’s fourth straight game scoring at least 30 points, its longest streak since 2021.
Pick ATS: Green Bay
