NFL Week 16 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Here’s a quick look at all Week 16 games, played Saturday (because most are on Saturday) unless noted.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, Thursday
Who will start at QB for New York? Mike White had taken over for Zach Wilson and played pretty well, but doctors wouldn’t clear White due to a ribs injury for Sunday’s game vs. Detroit. Wilson threw for 317 yard and two scores but also a pick and had some very off-target throws. New York played without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Jacksonville has won three of four following a Sunday upset of Dallas, and QB Trevor Lawrence is starting to play to what was expected as the top overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Wilson was No. 2.
Pick ATS: New York
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Buffalo won its fifth in a row last Saturday, rallying for a 32-29 victory over visiting Miami in the snow. Tyler Bass hit the winning field goal from 25 yards out as the Bills clinched a playoff spot. Josh Allen threw for four TDs and led the team in rushing (77 yards). The Bears came out of their bye and gave the NFL-best Eagles some trouble in a 25-20 home loss – Chicago’s seventh straight defeat. Justin Fields continued to shine with two TD passes and 95 yards rushing, becoming the third QB ever with a 1,000-yard rushing season.
Pick ATS: Chicago
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
The Saints improved to 5-9 with Sunday’s 21-18 win over Atlanta, and they are just a game out of first in the lousy NFC South. Andy Dalton and hybrid QB/RB/TE Taysom Hill combined to throw three touchdown passes. Cleveland was a 13-3 winner on Saturday over Baltimore in Deshaun Watson’s home debut, although he again looked rather rusty in throwing for just 161 yards.
Pick ATS: Cleveland (alternate line of -2.5)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Houston could wrap up the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft this week. It lost at home to Tennessee, 17-10, in Week 8. Derrick Henry rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns – it was the former Heisman winner’s fourth consecutive 200-yard game against the Texans, making him the first player in NFL history to have at least 150 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in four straight games vs. the same opponent. Both teams lost in the final seconds on Sunday (Houston on a walk-off OT touchdown vs. Kansas City).
Pick ATS: Tennessee (alternate line of -6.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle was an early surprise at 6-3 but has been proven a fraud as the Seahawks lost for the fourth time in five games on Thursday in Week 15, 21-13, to San Francisco. The offence managed just 277 yards, and top wideout Tyler Lockett suffered a broken finger that may end his season. Kansas City was nearly stunned at Houston on Sunday but rallied for a 30-24 OT win to clinch a seventh straight AFC West title. Jerick McKinnon had a 26-yard touchdown run in overtime.
Pick ATS: Kansas City (alternate line of -9.5)
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Could be an NFC playoff preview. Minnesota staged the biggest comeback win in NFL history on Saturday, rallying from down 33-0 in the third quarter to beat Indianapolis 39-36 in OT and clinch the NFC North title. Kirk Cousins threw for four TDs and had his second straight 400-yard game. That’s a first in franchise history. The Giants were 20-12 upset winners on Sunday night at Washington to really boost their wild-card chances.
Pick ATS: Minnesota (alternate line of -3)
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
Could be an AFC playoff preview. Cincinnati trailed Tampa Bay 17-0 late in the second quarter on Sunday but absolutely dominated the second half in a 34-23 win, the team’s sixth in a row. Joe Burrow & Co. now are alone in first in the AFC North. New England was down 17-0 at Las Vegas but looked poised to win 24-17 before allowing two Raiders TDs in the final 32 seconds – can’t even explain what Pats receiver Jakobi Meyers was thinking with his lateral on the walk-off TD for Las Vegas.
Pick ATS: New England
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Detroit got a late touchdown to beat the Jets 20-17 on Sunday to win for the sixth time in seven games to reach .500 and is very much alive in the NFC wild-card chase after starting 1-6. Detroit’s Kalif Raymond had a 47-yard punt return TD early in the game, the shortest punt-return touchdown in the NFL since 2007. Carolina’s two-game winning streak ended in a 24-16 home loss to Pittsburgh as the Panthers managed only 209 yards.
Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of -2.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta rookie QB Desmond Ridder made his first NFL start Sunday in New Orleans and predictably struggled in throwing for 97 yards and rushing for 38 in a 21-18 loss – but at 5-9, the Falcons are still just a game out of first in the NFC South. Baltimore played a second straight game without star QB Lamar Jackson and was terrible offensively in a 13-3 loss in Cleveland on Saturday to fall out of first in the AFC North. Jackson might be back here.
Pick ATS: Baltimore (alternate line of -6.5 if Jackson back)
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Another potential NFC playoff preview. On Thursday in Week 15, the 49ers became the first team to clinch a division title this season as they won a seventh straight game, 21-13 in Seattle. QB and Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy played very well again with two TD passes and suddenly is in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race when barely anyone knew who Purdy was just a few weeks ago.
Pick ATS: 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia goes for the season sweep as it beat visiting Dallas 26-17 in Week 6. Jalen Hurts threw for 155 yards and two touchdowns, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson had two of Philadelphia’s three interceptions of Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott was hurt then but is healthy now. This was to be the biggest game of the week but with Philadelphia winning on Sunday and Dallas being upset in Jacksonville, the Eagles have all but locked up the NFC’s top seed and NFC East title. Frankly, they don’t even have to care much about this game.
Pick ATS: Dallas
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday night game. The Raiders blew a 17-0 lead at home vs. New England on Sunday but scored two TDs in the final 32 seconds to win 30-24 – the game-winning defensive touchdown by Chandler Jones with zeroes on the clock was unlike anything seen in league history. Pittsburgh kept its slim playoff hopes alive with a 24-16 win at Carolina. Rookie starting QB Kenny Pickett was out in the concussion protocol but probably will play this week.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins, Sunday
Green Bay on a short week as it comes off a Monday night home game vs. the Rams. The Dolphins played great in the snow in Buffalo on Sunday but lost on a field goal as time expired. It was Miami’s third straight loss but all were on the road. Simply a different team, especially defensively, at home.
Point spread: Dolphins -4.5
Pick ATS: Miami
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday
Two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. The Rams are on a short week as they come off a Monday night game in Green Bay and probably were eliminated from playoff contention in that matchup. Maybe Russell Wilson is the problem in Denver? He missed Sunday’s game with a concussion and the Broncos ended a five-game losing streak with a 24-15 win over Arizona. Wilson is expected back here.
Point spread: Broncos -1
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday
Sunday night game. The Bucs played arguably their best half of football this season in the first half Sunday at home vs. Cincinnati in leading 17-3 at the break but then maybe their worst in the second half in losing 34-23. Tom Brady, who threw two picks and lost two fumbles, was beaten for the first time in a 23-year career after leading by at least 17 points. Arizona appears to be going through the motions at this point and lost 24-15 in Denver on Sunday. Backup QB Colt McCoy, now the starter with Kyler Murray done for the year, left injured and is in question here.
Pick ATS: TBD on Arizona QB
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts, Monday
The Colts somehow blew a 33-0 third-quarter lead at Minnesota this past Saturday and lost 39-36 in overtime and also lost 2021 NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor to an expected season-ending ankle injury. The Chargers are in the AFC Wild-Card chase and beat Tennessee 20-17 on Sunday on a 43-yard field goal as time expired.
Point spread: Chargers -3.5
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of -3)