NFL Week 15 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 13, 2021

Just four weeks left in the 2021 NFL regular season, the bye weeks are over and the start of Saturday matchups have begun!

Here’s a quick look at all Week 15 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, Thursday

This game may decide the AFC West as Kansas City leads Los Angeles by a game, but the Chargers hold the current tiebreaker as they upset the Chiefs 30-24 in Week 3 on a Justin Herbert TD pass with 32 seconds left. Kansas City is rolling now, though, winning a sixth straight game Sunday 48-9 over Las Vegas. The KC defence hasn’t allowed more than 17 points once in that streak. The Chargers had little trouble with the visiting Giants, 37-21. Herbert had three TD passes, including maybe the throw of the year.

Point spread: Chiefs -3.5

Pick ATS: Kansas City

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns, Saturday

Las Vegas is flatlining, getting destroyed 48-9 in Kansas City on Sunday, its fifth loss in six games. Raiders players made the mistake of stomping on the Chiefs’ logo before the game and that clearly fired up the home side. On the first offensive play from scrimmage, Raiders RB Josh Jacobs fumbled and it was returned 23 yards for a touchdown. Cleveland came out of its bye and looked much better in a 24-22 win over Baltimore that really wasn’t that close. Star defender Myles Garrett scored his first career TD.

Point spread: Browns -6.5

Pick ATS: Cleveland

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday

Quite possibly an AFC wild-card round playoff preview. Both teams come off their bye weeks. New England has won an NFL-best seven straight games to take control of the AFC East and has the top seed in the conference – if that holds, the Pats would not play on wild-card weekend. The Colts currently hold a wild-card spot behind rushing leader Jonathan Taylor. It will be fascinating to see him operate against the league’s best defence.

Point spread: Colts -2

Pick ATS: Indianapolis

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

Carolina lost its third in a row Sunday, 29-21 to Atlanta. Coach Matt Rhule puzzlingly was rotating QBs but says Cam Newton remains his starter. Canadian rookie running back Chuba Hubbard rushed for 33 yards and a score. Buffalo lost its second in a row, 33-27 in overtime at Tampa Bay in a possible Super Bowl preview. The Bills staged a miracle comeback to get it to OT. Josh Allen threw for 308 yards and two scores and rushed for 109 and a TD.

Point spread: Bills -12

Pick ATS: Carolina

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

Could be a trap game galore for the Cardinals as they hosted the Los Angeles Rams in a huge Monday night game to close Week 14. Off its first win of the season, the Lions looked flat in a 38-10 loss Sunday in Denver. Detroit was down several key players due to injury/COVID/flu. The Lions have been eliminated from playoff contention, but we knew that Week 1.

Point spread: Cardinals -14

Pick ATS: Detroit (alternate line of +14.5)

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Miami comes out of its bye as the second-hottest team in the AFC on five-game winning streak. The defence hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any of them. The Jets were dominated at home by New Orleans on Sunday, 30-9 as New York was officially eliminated from playoff contention. The Jets have missed the postseason 11 straight years, the longest active skid in the NFL. The Dolphins go for the season sweep of the Jets, beating them 24-17 in Week 11. Tua Tagovailoa threw two TD passes. Joe Flacco had two for the Jets, but he’s out now.

Point spread: Dolphins -8.5

Pick ATS: Miami

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Dallas didn’t officially win the NFC East on Sunday but basically did with a 27-20 win at Washington, although the Cowboys tried to give up a big lead. Rookie Micah Parsons sacked Taylor Heinicke twice and forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. No defensive player in the NFL has been better than Parsons this season. The Giants had to start backup QB Mike Glennon again Sunday and were dominated in a 37-21 loss at the Chargers. The Cowboys try for the sweep of the Giants, beating them 44-20 in Week 5. Dak Prescott threw three TD passes and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 110 yards and a score. New York QB Daniel Jones was knocked out injured. He’s currently out with a different injury.

Point spread: Cowboys -11

Pick ATS: New York

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia comes out of its bye week. Starting QB Jalen Hurts missed the Week 13 win over the Giants and backup Gardner Minshew played great, but there is apparently no QB controversy.  Washington’s NFC East chances went largely out the window with a one-sided home loss to Dallas on Sunday. QB Taylor Heinicke left early with a knee injury and didn’t return. He says that he’s fine. It’s the first meeting of the season between NFC East rivals and they play again in Week 17.

Point spread: Eagles -4

Pick ATS: Philadelphia

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Another potential AFC first-round playoff preview. Tennessee snapped a two-game skid with a 20-0 beating of Jacksonville on Sunday. It was the Titans’ first home shutout since 2000 and held the Jags to 192 total yards while picking off four passes. Pittsburgh lost 36-28 on Thursday at Minnesota. The Steelers got down big and nearly staged an incredible comeback. Canadian wideout Chase Claypool had a night to forget with a few boneheaded mistakes, although he led the team with eight catches for 93 yards.

Point spread: Titans -2.5

Pick ATS: Pittsburgh

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the worst matchup of the season – the loser still has a shot at the No. 1 overall draft pick next year. Jacksonville was a rare road favourite in Week 1 but spanked 37-21 in Houston. Trevor Lawrence threw for a still-career-high 333 yards and three scores but three picks. Tyrod Taylor had two TD throws for Houston, but he has been benched for rookie Davis Mills at this point. Both teams lost in lopsided fashion Sunday. The Jaguars looked like they absolutely quit in a 20-0 loss at Tennessee. Rookie No. 1 overall pick Lawrence was picked off four times for the first time in his career – dating to high school.

Point spread: Jaguars -3

Pick ATS: Jacksonville (alternate line of -2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Cincinnati lost 26-23 in overtime at home to San Francisco on Sunday. The Bengals were able to tie it late and scored first in OT but then let the Niners drive right down the field to score the winning touchdown. WR Ja’Marr Chase continued his stellar rookie season with two more TD catches. Denver was an easy home winner over Detroit, rushing for 184 yards and three scores.

Point spread: Broncos -1.5

Pick ATS: Denver

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco won for the fourth time in five games Sunday, 26-23 in overtime at Cincinnati despite blowing a late TD lead in regulation. Jimmy Garoppolo threw a 12-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Aiyuk to win it in OT. Tight end George Kittle caught 13 passes for 151 yards and a score. Atlanta was a 29-21 upset winner at Carolina. The Falcons are 5-2 on the road compared to 0-5 in their own stadium.

Point spread: 49ers -8.5

Pick ATS: Atlanta

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Short week for the Rams as they were at Arizona in a big game Monday night. Seattle won its second in a row Sunday, 33-13 at awful Houston. Russell Wilson threw two TD passes and Rashaad Penny rushed for 137 yards and two TDs. The Rams won in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 5, 26-17. The Seahawks’ playoff chances essentially ended that night when Wilson was knocked out with a finger injury that needed surgery.

Point spread: Rams -7

Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line of -6.5)

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

Could be a Super Bowl 56 preview. Green Bay is going to be a playoff team and may clinch the NFC North this week. The Packers beat Chicago 45-30 on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers has said he owns the Bears and he does, throwing for 341 yards and four scores. He did say his broken toe felt worse after the game, but he won’t be missing any games. Baltimore lost its second in a row Sunday, 24-22 in Cleveland. More important, star QB Lamar Jackson left with an ankle injury. It didn’t look great, so we’d be surprised if he plays this week. Tyler Huntley is his backup.

Point spread: Packers -7

Pick ATS: Green Bay alternate line of -6.5 if Jackson is out

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday night game. What is it with the Saints vs. the Bucs in the regular season? New Orleans won both last year and upset Tampa 36-27 back on Halloween but lost starting QB Jameis Winston for the season in it and that proved to be a death blow to the Saints’ year. New Orleans ended a five-game slide on Sunday with a 30-9 win at the Jets. Alvin Kamara ran for 120 yards and a touchdown in his return from a four-game absence. QB Taysom Hill rushed for two scores. Tampa Bay blew a big home lead vs. Buffalo but won in overtime. Tom Brady became the first NFL QB to reach 700 career TD passes (including playoffs).

Point spread: Bucs -11.5

Pick ATS: New Orleans

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, Monday

If flex scheduling was available on Mondays this season (it’s coming), this would have been flexed out. The NFC North rivals are meeting for the first time and will again in Week 18.  The Vikings kept their wild-card hopes alive with a 36-28 home win over Pittsburgh last Thursday, although Minnesota tried its best to blow that game. Dalvin Cook rushed for an NFL season-high 205 yards along with two scores. The Bears played well for a half Sunday night in Green Bay but were dominated after the break in a 45-30 loss. QB Justin Fields may have hurt his hand, so monitor that.

Point spread: Vikings -4

Pick ATS: Chicago