NFL Week 12 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
It also means no teams on the bye, although they aren’t over yet. Here’s a quick look at Week 12 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Thursday
Per usual, Detroit host the 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Thanksgiving. The Lions perhaps took the Bears for granted a bit on Sunday as Detroit was outplayed most of the game but rallied from down 12 with about three minutes left to win 31-26 and truly put a hammerlock on the NFC North. Detroit has its best record through 10 games since 1962. Green Bay upset the visiting Chargers 23-20 behind 322 yards and two TDs from embattled QB Jordan Love, but No. 1 running back Aaron Jones got hurt again. Detroit won 34-20 in Green Bay on Thursday night in Week 4.
Pick ATS: Detroit (buy down to -7)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday
Per usual, Dallas hosts the 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Thanksgiving. Seems like NFC East rival Washington is the opponent about every third year even though it’s open to the rest of the league other than Detroit. Commanders coach Ron Rivera wasn’t officially fired after Sunday’s embarrassing 31-19 home loss to the Giants, but you can be sure that was the final straw in terms of Rivera returning in 2024 (it was unlikely anyways). Dallas has blasted every bad team it has faced this season, and continued that Sunday with a 33-10 win at Carolina.
Pick ATS: Washington
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday
The Thanksgiving night game is completely random each season. San Francisco leads the NFC West by a game over Seattle. The teams play again in two weeks. The Niners entered their Week 9 bye on a three-game losing streak but have come out of it with back-to-back easy wins and Brock Purdy looking like a different QB – in Sunday’s 27-14 win over Tampa Bay, Purdy joined Joe Montana as the only Niners quarterbacks ever to post a perfect passer rating in a game with at least 15 attempts. Seattle lost late at the LA Rams, 17-16, and QB Geno Smith and RB Kenneth Walker both were injured. Walker seems almost certain to miss at least Thursday and Smith is in question.
Pick ATS: San Francisco
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, Friday
Yes, we have NFL football this year on Black Friday for the first time – a matinee – and streaming only on Amazon Prime. Makes total sense that Amazon pushed to get this game added on the biggest shopping day of the year. The Jets have finally given up on QB Zach Wilson as he was mercifully pulled from Sunday 32-6 loss to Buffalo for journeyman Tim Boyle, who will get the start here. Wilson has been demoted to third string, and he may never take another snap for the franchise. Miami came out of its bye and beat the Raiders 20-13 and remains atop the AFC East. These teams play again Week 15.
Pick ATS: New York (buy up to +10.5)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Both NFC South teams come off their bye weeks and very much in the race to win the league’s worst division. New Orleans is in first, a game up on Atlanta (and Tampa Bay). The Falcons enter having lost three straight and most of the fan base wanting coach Arthur Smith fired, but that will not happen and ownership already has said Smith will be back in 2024. We’ll see how the season ends. Smith is going back to Desmond Ridder at QB. The Saints probably have the division’s best overall roster when healthy, but they had WR Michael Thomas and CB Marshon Lattimore go down with “significant” injuries in Week 10. QB Derek Carr was in the concussion protocol but should be ready. It’s the first meeting of the season between the teams.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
First meeting of the season between AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh caught a big break Sunday in facing Browns third-string rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and while the defence largely did its job, the offence managed only 13 points. Running back Najee Harris seemed to call out the coaching staff and others and also appears to have lost his featured role to Jaylen Warren. OC Matt Canada was fired Tuesday. Cincinnati lost 34-20 in Baltimore on Thursday in Week 11 and lost QB Joe Burrow to the second season-ending of his career already. So the Bengals can forget about the playoffs with Jake Browning taking over.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Rookie QB matchup of Carolina’s Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick, and Tennessee’s Will Levis, the No. 33 overall selection. Young’s struggles continued again in a 33-10 home loss to Dallas on Sunday. Young threw his third pick-six in the last three games and also fumbled. The Titans lost their third in a row Sunday, 34-14 in Jacksonville. Levis was an efficient 13-for-17 for 158 yards and two TDs. Coach Mike Vrabel’s team has now lost nine in a row outside Nashville.
Pick ATS: Tennessee (buy down to -3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Indy is off its bye week and entered it on a two-game winning streak in which the defense allowed a combined 19 points. Prior to that, the Colts had lost three in a row and allowed at least 37 points in each. The Bucs were 27-14 losers at San Francisco on Sunday. No surprise there. The Tampa defence lost cornerbacks Jamal Dean and Carlton Davis and linebacker Lavonte David all to injuries, so definitely monitor those.
Pick ATS: Indianapolis
New England Patriots at New York Giants
This could be the most unwatchable game of the season and neither Week 1 starting QB will be in there. The Giants lost Daniel Jones a couple of weeks ago to a torn ACL, while former first-round pick Mac Jones finally was so bad in a Week 10 loss to the Colts in Germany – Pats are off their bye week — that he’s expected to be third string for this game. Either Bailey Zappe or Will Grier should start. Yeah, things have gone downhill just a bit since Tom Brady left. Frankly, the winner here loses big in terms of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Pick ATS: New York (buy up to +3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
This could be a great AFC South rivalry for years specifically between young quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence of Jacksonville and near-lock Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud of Houston. In Week 3, the Texans showed they were much better this year with a 37-17 home rout of the Jags – the first win as Houston head coach for DeMeco Ryans. Lawrence and Stroud had similar numbers but Jacksonville turned it over twice and Houston didn’t have a giveaway. Both led wins on Sunday as the first-place Jaguars stayed a game up on the second-place Texans.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Cleveland opted to start rookie fifth-round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday against Pittsburgh with Deshaun Watson out for the season, and DTR did enough to lead a win over Pittsburgh to keep the job going forward – the team did sign veteran and former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco on Monday, however. Denver won its fourth in a row to get to .500, 21-20, over Minnesota on a Russell Wilson TD pass with just over a minute to go. That four-game winning streak is now tied for the NFL’s longest.
Pick ATS: Denver
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
If Seattle misses the playoffs look to the Rams as they swept the season series with the Seahawks on Sunday with a 17-16 win to snap a three-game skid. Lucas Havrisik made a 22-yard field goal 1:31 to play. Star wideout Cooper Kupp didn’t return after injuring his right ankle in the second quarter, and the former Super Bowl MVP could miss time. Arizona played solidly in Houston but lost 21-16. Kyler Murray threw for 214 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his second game back after recovering from a torn ACL. He also rushed for 51 yards and a score. The Rams beat the Cardinals 26-9 in Week 6.
Pick ATS: Arizona
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Could be a major letdown game for the Chiefs after losing to the Eagles 21-17 at home Monday night in a Super Bowl 57 rematch and possible SB 58 preview. Kansas City might officially have an offence problem as it was held scoreless in the second half for the third straight game. KC is averaging a league-low 5.3 points per game in the second half this season. Las Vegas had a two-game winning streak snapped in a 20-13 loss in Miami. The defence played great in forcing three turnovers, but rookie QB Aidan O’Connell and the offence also gave it away three times as the Raiders lost for the first time under interim Coach Antonio Pierce. These teams play again Christmas afternoon.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas (buy up to +10)
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
The NFL schedule-makers did the Eagles no favours as they had to play at defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City on Monday night to close Week 11 and won, 21-17, and now play another top SB contender, albeit one struggling some, in Buffalo. Josh Allen vs. Jalen Hurts will be fun to watch. The Bills did snap a two-game skid with a 32-6 home win over the Jets on Sunday in the team’s first game since offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired. Buffalo only turned it over once, and that had been a problem. Monday’s win was Philly’s fourth in a row and it is an NFL-best 9-1.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (buy down to -3)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore’s 34-20 win over Cincinnati on Thursday in Week 11 was huge in terms of potentially winning the division, but the Ravens lost Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews perhaps for the rest of the regular season due to injury. Maybe only Travis Kelce is more important to his offence from the tight end position than Andrews is to Baltimore. Chargers coach Brandon Staley was very short with the media after his team lost yet another close game on Sunday, 23-20, in Green Bay. Staley calls out the defence, and that unit is the big reason why the Bolts are under .500. Star pass-rusher Joey Bosa may have suffered a serious injury as well Sunday.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, Monday
Minnesota goes for the season sweep as it won 19-13 in Chicago in Week 6, but the starting quarterbacks that day were Kirk Cousins and rookie Tyson Bagent – it was Bagent’s first NFL start, but he’s back to No. 2 behind a now-healthy Justin Fields. Cousins is out for the season. The Vikings had a five-game winning streak snapped in a last-second 21-20 loss in Denver. Star WR Justin Jefferson didn’t make it back from injured reserve but might for this one. Chicago had a 26-14 lead late in the fourth quarter in Detroit on Sunday and lost 31-26. That probably sealed Coach Matt Ebeflus’ fate after this season.
Point spread: Vikings -3.5
Pick ATS: Minnesota (buy down to -3)