NFL Week 11 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
On the bye are Indianapolis and New Orleans. Here’s a look at all Week 11 games with NFL odds, played Sunday unless noted.
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Thursday
First meeting of the season between AFC East rivals. It is now clearly time to take New England seriously as a legit AFC contender as the East leaders were very impressive Sunday in a seventh straight win, 28-23 at Tampa Bay. Rookie tailback TreVeyon Henderson blew up with 147 yards and two TDs on just 14 carries. Mike Vrabel has to be the sure-fire NFL Coach of the Year so far. The beat Cleveland on Sunday, 27-20, thanks to the first game in franchise history with a kickoff return TD and a punt return TD. That’s back-to-back wins following a 0-7 start.
Pick ATS: New York
Washington Commanders “at” Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET kick from historic Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, home of soccer superpower Real Madrid. This is also the last international game of the season. It’s certainly not the best matchup for the league’s first-ever regular-season game in Spain as Washington’s season has been ruined by injuries to Jayden Daniels, and Miami’s has been ruined simply by poor play. The Commanders laid down Sunday in a 44-22 home loss to Detroit and have lost four straight games by at least 21 points, an NFL first for any club since 1970. The Dolphins, though, stunned visiting Buffalo on Sunday, 30-13, to snap a nine-game skid vs. teams with winning records.
Pick ATS: Miami
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina is much improved this season and really no excuse for its 17-10 home loss to a terrible Saints team on Sunday – the first time the Panthers had been favoured this season. They had season lows in points and total yards (175). Atlanta chose not to take its bye week here (already did) after losing in Germany on Sunday morning to Indianapolis, 31-25 in OT. The Falcons simply couldn’t stop Colts tailback Jonathan Taylor. Carolina beat visiting Atlanta, 30-0, in Week 3 in the team’s first shutout since Nov. 22, 2020.
Pick ATS: Atlanta (alt -3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Potential Super Bowl preview, although neither looked very Super on Sunday. Tampa Bay was upset 28-23 at home by New England, another very good AFC East club. That game saw a total of six touchdowns by rookies, tying the most in a game in the Super Bowl era. Buffalo was a much bigger upset victim, 30-13 in Miami as the Bills were -9.5. They had won seven in a row in the series. The turned it over a season-high-tying three times and now have eight total turnovers in their three losses.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Houston staged the biggest fourth quarter rally in franchise history Sunday as it trailed visiting Jacksonville, 29-10, but won 36-29. The 26 fourth-quarter points were the second-most in team history. And the Texans did it without starting QB C.J. Stroud, out with a concussion. Good chance he’s back for this one. The Titans are out of their bye and pretty clearly the NFL’s worst club but at least can’t go winless. They haven’t won at home yet, though. Houston beat Tennessee, 26-0, in Week 4. Stroud threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota opened the season in Chicago and rallied for a 27-24 win in QB J.J. McCarthy’s regular-season NFL debut for the Vikes. However, Minnesota enters having lost three of four following a 27-19 home defeat to Baltimore on Sunday. At 4-5, it is the only team in the NFC North with a losing record. Chicago trailed at home, 20-10, to the Giants on Sunday with about four minutes left and pulled out the 24-20 stunner. The Bears now have four wins when trailing in the final two minutes this season, their most in a season in the Super Bowl era.
Pick ATS: Minnesota (alt -2.5)
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Screams potential trap game for Green Bay after hosting Philadelphia in a huge game on Monday night to conclude Week 10. The Packers had a few injuries entering that, especially at receiver and tight end. The Giants gagged away a 10-point lead with about four minutes left Sunday in Chicago and lost, 24-20. New York is now 1-2 this season in games where it leads by at least 10 in the fourth. The rest of the NFL is 87-1.
Pick ATS: New York
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati comes off its bye week having kept Pro Bowl pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson regarding the trade deadline but shipping out veteran linebacker Logan Wilson to Dallas. The Bengals have lost two straight in just about the craziest fashion possible considering they have scored 39 and 42 points in the two. But they have not just the worst defence in the NFL but maybe a historically bad one. The team’s only win in the past seven games was 33-31 over Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers were pretty inept Sunday night in a 25-10 loss at the Chargers and now have been outgained by 858 total yards on the year. Aaron Rodgers had two picks.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
If the Jaguars miss the playoffs by a game, circle Sunday’s 36-29 loss in Houston in which Jacksonville blew a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead – the biggest blown lead in Jaguars history. The Chargers looked very good Sunday night in a 25-10 home win over Pittsburgh and have won three straight after dropping three of four. Keenan Allen passed Hall of Famer Antonio Gates for the most receptions in Chargers history.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville (alt +3.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Huge game in the NFC West for an early tiebreaker as they meet again Dec. 18 in Seattle. They are tied atop it at 7-2, both on four-game winning streaks and clearly one of these two will win the division with the issues facing the 49ers. These are the only two teams who rank Top 5 in the league in scoring offence and defence. The Rams won impressively at San Francisco on Sunday, 42-26. Matthew Stafford had four more TD passes and has thrown 22 straight without an INT. The all-time record is 26 by Tom Brady. Seattle had no trouble Sunday in a 44-22 home win over Arizona. That marked the first time in team history Seattle led 28-0 or better in back-to-back games.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Is this the week Brock Purdy finally returns for San Francisco? That toe injury kept the QB out yet again Sunday and the Niners were blasted, 42-26, at home by the Rams. San Francisco is 3-4 since a 3-0 start. Mac Jones did play well in the loss with 319 yards and three TDs. Arizona put starting QB Kyler Murray on IR last week and was routed, 44-22 in Seattle. It was the first loss this season by more than one score. The Niners try for the sweep as they edged the Cardinals, 16-15, in Week 3 on a field goal as time expired.
Pick ATS: San Francisco (alt -2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The Ravens are definitely coming now as they won a third game in a row Sunday, 27-19, at Minnesota. Baltimore is outscoring clubs 85-41 in that span and is 4-0 this year when winning the turnover battle compared to 0-5 when losing it. The defence has allowed fewer than 20 points in four straight. Cleveland came out of its bye Sunday and lost 27-20 at the Jets. How the Browns lost allowing just 169 total yards and not committing a turnover is hard to do. Baltimore trounced Cleveland, 41-17, in Week 2 behind four Jackson TD passes.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Big matchup in the AFC West and first meeting between the clubs. Kansas City is out of its bye but had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-21 loss in Buffalo entering it. Lose here, and the AFC West is probably out of reach. The Chiefs have won it nine straight years. The Broncos are on a mini-bye as they beat the Raiders, 10-7, on Thursday in Week 10 for a seventh straight victory. The 10 points were the fewest in a Denver home win since 2006. It has won 10 straight at home for the first time since 2014-15.
Pick ATS: Denver
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday night game and what I expect to be a preview of the NFC title game. Many thought it would be last year as well, but the Lions didn’t hold up their end in the playoffs. It’s a short week for the Eagles after visiting another top NFC contender, Green Bay, on Monday night to conclude Week 10. Philly was pretty healthy entering that one off its bye. Detroit rolled Sunday, 44-22, at Washington as the Lions won for the 13th straight time following a loss. Jared Goff burnished his MVP case with 320 yards and three more TD passes.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders, Monday
A truly pathetic defensive team in Dallas against a truly pathetic offensive team in Las Vegas. The Cowboys are out of their bye and at least traded for two defenders during that in Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson from the Bengals during it. The Raiders actually traded away one of their better offensive players last week in receiver Jakobi Meyers. Then the Raiders went and lost in Denver, 10-7, on Thursday in Week 10. They had a few special teams mistakes and fired that coordinator the next day.
Pick ATS: Dallas (alt -3)
