NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
It was a wild offseason in the NFL with the likes of Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and other stars changing teams. Here’s quick look at all Week 1 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday
The 2022 season begins where the 2021 campaign ended: At SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, where the Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl 56. LA is largely back intact other than Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr., but the Bills open as the favourites to win Super Bowl 57 and have the MVP favourite in quarterback Josh Allen. It’s the first time in the Kickoff Game for both franchises, and reigning SB winners have generally dominated in it.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line +3)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons begin life without the best quarterback in franchise history, former NFL MVP Matt Ryan. Ex-Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota takes over under centre at least until rookie Desmond Ridder gets his shot. The Falcons are widely expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Saints begin life without the best coach in franchise history, Sean Payton. He’s now in a TV booth. Receiver Michael Thomas was the 2019 NFL Offensive Player of the Year but barely played in 2020 and not at all last year for New Orleans due to injury. He’s ready to go.
Pick ATS: New Orleans
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
It’s going to be very long season in Chicago for new head coach Matt Eberflus and second-year quarterback Justin Fields. The Niners reached last season’s NFC title game under QB Jimmy Garoppolo, but he’s the No. 2 to open 2022 behind Trey Lance – actually, it’s a shock Jimmy G wasn’t traded or released because now if Lance struggles early in the season there will be a push to put Garoppolo back in there.
Pick ATS: San Francisco (alternate line -6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers begin life without future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with Mitchell Trubisky (presumably) taking over for now, although it’s simply a matter of time before rookie first-round QB Kenny Pickett gets the job after a spectacular preseason. Cincinnati made a surprise run to Super Bowl 56 thanks to huge seasons from QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow took a beating last year behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, but that group was addressed in the offseason. Cincinnati swept the 2021 series in a rarity.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
The Eagles are a chic pick to win the NFC East this season, but it’s a make-or-break year for quarterback Jalen Hurts. Terrific runner but still rather inaccurate. The Eagles hugely boosted Hurts’ receiving group by trading for the Titans’ AJ Brown during the draft. Detroit is a chic pick to make the playoffs, but that could be the “Hard Knocks” effect. No. 2 overall pick and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favourite. Philly played arguably its best game last year in Detroit, winning 44-6.
Pick ATS: Detroit
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
By all reports, the New England offence has looked terrible this summer as it operates without an official coordinator with former OC Josh McDaniels now the Raiders’ coach. Expectations are sky high in Miami under new coach Mike McDaniel and the offseason trade for Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill. Fins wideout Jaylen Waddle had a stellar rookie year but is dealing with an undisclosed injury that has kept him out of practice for three weeks. Miami simply could be playing it cautious and he’s expected to play. The Dolphins swept the 2021 series.
Pick ATS: Miami (alternate line -2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Apparently, star quarterback Lamar Jackson will enter the season without a contract extension. That’s something to watch because some guys play better while betting on themselves but for others it becomes a distraction. The Ravens are a bit banged up at running back with JK Dobbins no sure thing for Week 1 after missing all of 2021 and Gus Edwards starting on the PUP list. The Jets will not have starting QB Zach Wilson at least Week 1 so it will be former Ravens Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco under centre.
Pick ATS: Baltimore (alternate line -6.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
It’s the first-ever game that counts for the Washington “Commanders.” Their projected starting running back was to be rookie Brian Robinson Jr., but he was recently shot in a carjacking attempt in the DC area. Thankfully, it wasn’t too serious, but he’ll miss at least the first four games. Chase Young, the 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, also will miss at least the first four games on the PUP list. The Jaguars spent a lot of money this offseason in free agency, and this will be the Jacksonville head coaching debut of Doug Pederson. Running back Travis Etienne, a 2021 first-round pick, will make his regular-season debut after missing last season injured.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville (alternate line +3.5)
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
This might be the most interesting matchup of Week 1 simply as the Browns traded former No. 1 overall pick and ex-Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to Carolina not long ago, and he’ll start against his former club. Mayfield was traded because Cleveland signed QB Deshaun Watson, but he starts serving his 11-game suspension. Thus, it will be veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett under centre for the Browns.
Pick ATS: Cleveland (alternate line +3)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
It’s the third straight year the Colts are starting a newly acquired veteran at quarterback, this time former NFL MVP Matt Ryan of the Falcons. Pro Bowl linebacker Shaquille (Darius) Leonard had ankle surgery this summer and missed all of camp but was activated off the PUP list last week and started practicing so it’s looking good for him Week 1. It’s the Houston head coaching debut of Lovie Smith, and few rookies had more buzz this summer than Texans running back Dameon Pierce, who has won the No. 1 job. The Colts routed the Texans twice last year.
Pick ATS: Houston
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll makes his head coaching debut for the Giants. Their season all depends on inconsistent QB Daniel Jones, whose fifth-year rookie option was not picked up. Probably going to be another long season. It’s easy to forget the Titans were the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season because they were upset in the divisional round at home by Cincinnati. It could be the last season in Tennessee for QB Ryan Tannehill as rookie Malik Willis impressed this summer and has won the No. 2 job. The Titans recently got terrible news when 2021 Pro Bowl pass-rusher Harold Landry (12 sacks) was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Pick ATS: Tennessee
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Rodgers is of course back in Green Bay, but All-Pro wideout Davante Adams is not. Receiver is a glaring question mark. Coach Matt LaFleur said “the ball’s gonna get spread around,” and the offence will use a number of different receivers this season. Vikings No. 1 tight end Irv Smith missed camp and the preseason following thumb surgery but should play. These teams split last year, each winning at home.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona opens without Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins as he is serving a six-game suspension. Fellow wideout Rondale Moore and tight end Zach Ertz are in question for Week 1 due to injury. Kansas City begins life without All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill, traded to Miami. The Chiefs should be just fine as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy.
Pick ATS: Arizona
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
The AFC West will be incredibly entertaining this season. Raiders Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller didn’t practice much, if at all, during training camp and was said to be dealing with a hamstring issue but has returned to practice and it frankly could be more contract-related. It will be the Raiders debut of former Packers All-Pro receiver Davante Adams. Former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack will make his Chargers debut. The team also signed Pro Bowl cornerback JC Jackson, but he’s not likely for the opener due to injury. These clubs split in 2021.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (alternate line -2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday night game. These teams opened the 2021 season in the Kickoff Game in Tampa, and the Bucs won a thriller. Of course, Tom Brady retired this offseason but that lasted only about a month-and-a-half. The Bucs are really banged up on the offensive line. Dallas opens without Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, who will miss a large chunk of the season injured. The Cowboys are thin at receiver with Michael Gallup and James Washington out injured.
Pick ATS: Dallas
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, Monday
The debut of the new ESPN crew and also the Broncos debut of quarterback Russell Wilson, traded this offseason from Seattle and owner of a new massive extension. It will be interesting to see the response he gets in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks are likely to be one of the NFC’s worst teams, and veteran journeyman Geno Smith starts at QB as he beat out Drew Lock in the preseason.
Pick ATS: Denver