NFL Playoff Preview: AFC Championship — Jets vs. Colts

What began as a season of hope for 32 NFL teams is now a competition between just four. Let’s take a look at the two survivors of the AFC — the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts — as they prepare to do battle at Lucas Oil Field this Sunday. Please note that all NFL betting lines come courtesy Sports Interaction’s online sportsbook:

The Numbers: The Colts are -7.5 point home favourites, no real surprise to anybody who saw them throttle the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 last week in the divisional playoff round. The Over/Under for this one is currently listed at 39.5 points, a fair number given the Jets don’t score a lot of points and — despite the fact the reigning league MVP, Peyton Manning, is under center — the Colts haven’t broken the 30-point plateau since Week 15 of the regular season.

The Matchup: Colts passing attack vs. Jets secondary. Make no mistake about it — the Jets are equipped to deal with the Indy aerial attack. Darrelle Revis led the unit with six interceptions this year and was runner-up to Green Bay’s Charles Woodson for Defensive Player of the Year; he’ll likely draw Reggie Wayne as a matchup this weekend. That means it’s up to a former pair of Pro Bowlers — CB Lito Sheppard and S Kerry Rhodes — to deal with the rest of Manning’s targets, most notably TE Dallas Clark. Clark is as steady as they come and a reliable safety-valve for Manning in the middle of the field; he caught seven passes against Baltimore last weekend and finished the regular season with 100 receptions, the highest total of his career. If the Jets can somehow limit both Wayne and Clark, something nobody has really been able to do this year, they’ve got a shot at the upset. If not, it’s going to be a very long day and a likely time of possession victory for the Colts.

The Intangible: Indy’s defense. It’s a unit that doesn’t get a lot of attention, mostly due to the lack of star power and the perception that it’s soft. Granted, most people know about DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney — the pair did combine for 23 sacks this season — but it’s linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session who could make or break the game on Sunday. Because New York loves to pound the ball via the run, Indy’s LBs will have to pay attention to gap assignments and ensure they wrap up on tackles. Both Brackett and Session are great at the latter — Session led the team with 102 tackles during the regular season while Brackett was right behind him, with 99. Pay close attention to how the pair match up with Shonn Greene, New York’s breakout star RB. Greene carved Cincy for 135 yards and then torched San Diego for 128, putting him atop the NFL leaderboard for postseason rushing yards. He’s a stout runner who can lower the shoulder and run over ‘backers; if he can get through Indy’s D-Line, it’ll be up to Session and Brackett to slow him up.

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