NFL Odds: Best bets following the 2024 NFL draft
The NFL off-season continues to move along with the NFL draft now in the rearview mirror. The draft can significantly impact next season’s betting odds, so let’s take a look at how the NFL landscape has shifted since last week.
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Offensive Rookie of the Year
The early part of the 2024 NFL draft was dominated by offensive players, with the top three picks being quarterbacks and eight of the top 10 selections being quarterbacks or wide receivers. A quarterback or wide receiver has won Offensive Player of the Year in each of the last five seasons and barring a monster season from Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, it will likely be a QB or WR against in 2024.
When I look at the top options for Offensive Rookie of the Year, I’m eliminating quarterbacks who likely won’t be their team’s Day One starter. I’m also crossing out wide receivers who will have below average quarterbacks throwing them the ball (sorry, Malik Nabers, you’re stuck with Daniel Jones).
Chicago’s Caleb Williams is obviously the early favourite. The No. 1 overall pick already has the keys to the Bears’ franchise and he has a slew of dangerous top end receiving talent to throw to like D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow top-10 pick Rome Odunze and others.
While I think Williams is in a great position to succeed, I like the value of Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels at +750 better than Williams at +200. Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, separates himself with his rushing ability and he has a lot of the same qualities of another former Washington QB, Robert Griffin III, who won OROTY in 2012.
Best bet: Jayden Daniels (+750)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
With such a heavy focus on quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft, a defensive player wasn’t selected until the 15th pick, the latest for a defensive player in the common draft era. The Defensive Rookie of the Year has been an edge rusher or linebacker in seven of the last 10 seasons, while a cornerback has won the other three.
One recent Rookie of the Year trend has seen the Offensive and Defensive ROTY come from the same team in each of the last two seasons. Quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson Jr. took home the awards for Houston last year, while Jets’ wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner won in 2022.
Vikings defensive end Dallas Turner opened as the favourite to win DROTY despite being the third defensive player picked in the draft. Turner is a terrific pass-rusher and was the SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year after racking up double-digit sacks in 2023. He should thrive under defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
For my money I’m going with the first defensive player picked in the draft, Indianapolis defensive end Laiatu Latu, who is generally considered to be the most pro-ready defender in the draft. Latu is coming off back-to-back seasons with double-digit sacks and he should be a cornerstone piece for the Colts.
Best bet: Laiatu Latu (+600)
Most Valuable Player
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won his second career NFL MVP in 2023 and he’ll look to become just the seventh player ever to win three career MVPs in 2024. And for what it’s worth, every other player who has won multiple MVPs in their career has either already been inducted into the Hall of Fame, or will be a Hall of Fame lock when they are eligible.
Everyone knows the deal, NFL MVP is a quarterback award. Including seasons that resulted in co-MVPS, 47 quarterbacks have the award, while the last non-QB to win was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. Only two defensive players have ever won MVP: defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971 and linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986. The only special teams player to win was placekicker Mark Moseley in 1982.
All that is to say, it should be no surprise that quarterbacks top the list to win in 2025. In fact, the top 18 favourites to win MVP are QBs, led by Patrick Mahomes at +600. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow round out the top three at +900 each and last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud, is next at +1000.
I’m going further down the board for this pick because I think Jalen Hurts to win MVP at +1600 is amazing value. Sure, the Eagles used the draft to improve defensively, but that just means they’ll be stronger on both sides of the ball and win a lot of games. Hurts finished second in MVP voting in 2022 and I think he’s due for a bounce-back year after finishing out of the top 10 in MVP voting last year.
Best bet: Jalen Hurts (+1600)
Super Bowl
After an epic battle in Super Bowl 58 that saw Kansas City top San Francisco in overtime, the way-too-early Super Bowl 59 odds had fans scratching their heads as the 49ers were +500 favourites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2025 and the Chiefs were next at +750.
The draft has come and gone, flipping the odds once more. After trading up four spots to draft speedy wide receiver Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick, Kansas City now sits as +550 favourites to win Super Bowl 59. The Niners also took a wide receiver with their first pick, Ricky Pearsall at No. 31 overall, with San Francisco dropping slightly to +600 on the Super Bowl odds.
The Chicago Bears are the biggest risers following the draft, going from +4000 on the Super Bowl odds pre-draft to +3500 post-draft. Despite drafting quarterback J.J. McCarthy 10th overall, the Minnesota Vikings were the biggest fallers after the draft and they now sit at +6600.
As Jalen Hurts goes, so do the Eagles, so give me Philadelphia at +1600 to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles have new offensive and defensive coordinators, they added in free agency with Saquon Barkley and Bryce Huff and they drafted two stud cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. This team will run through the NFC in 2024.
Best bet: Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)