NFL Best Bets: Conference Championships

And then there were four. It feels as if this season has gone by in a flash and it’s always a bit sad to know that we’re closer to the end than we are to the start of the campaign. On the flip side, each successive week is more tantalizing than the last, and rarely has that been truer than for this weekend’s NFC and AFC Conference Championship tilts.

Sunday’s 3 PM EST window sees the Philadelphia Eagles play host to the San Francisco 49ers, whereas at 6:30 PM EST the Kansas City Chiefs will host the AFC title game for the fifth consecutive year. For the second straight time, the Cincinnati Bengals will be the visitors.

Betting on the games themselves as far as picking winners and spreads is fine. But with so many storylines overflowing about all four teams, what are some of the juicier picks one can make? Here are four – among many, many others – that struck our fancy.

For that matter, don’t forget to visit our NFL odds and props page for plenty of action. Let’s dive in!

A Good Sunday for Christian

For all the hoopla surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles’ amazing season – and it has been excellent – they aren’t a perfect team. Of course, any weaknesses plaguing a number one seeded, 14-3 side is to be taken in relative terms. It’s less a case of arguing that they “aren’t good” in a category” but rather that they are “less good” in a certain statistical column.

For our purposes here we’ll consider Philly’s run defence. Now, readers who scoff at the very mention of the Eagles being less efficient against the run will point to the Divisional contest against the Giants. The hosts limited NFL superstar Saquon Barkley to a pedestrian 61 yards. It was indeed a good day at the offence for the Eagles’ defence. But Barkey still went off for one good run in the third quarter, hence his 6.8 yards per carry average. Furthermore, the Eagles knew that running the ball was New York’s predominant mode of attack. We’re not saying that 49ers Jack of all trades Christian McCaffrey will go beast mode all afternoon. First of all, he’s listed as questionable (he returned to practice on Friday). But if he plays, the over-under sits at 57.5, which is very tempting. All he needs is one good break and Philly does have a habit of giving those up.

Philly No Fly Zone

The numbers don’t lie. San Francisco’s offence, especially the passing game, has improved since Brock Purdy has taken over. It’s a remarkable second half to the 49ers’ campaign and another testament to Kyle Shanahan’s ability to operate with a “next man up” mentality.

The only problem is that on Sunday they’ll face the NFL’s best defence against the pass. The Eagles were one of only five teams that did not allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least 200 yards per contest. Moreover, Philly didn’t even allow 180 (179.8)! Granted, Brock Purdy is a flashier proposition than Daniel Jones (who was totally nullified to the tune of 135 yards), but Philly has truly been excellent against the air game, regardless of whom they’ve played. If there was ever going to be a game this season when Purdy looked too much like a rookie, it would be this one. His Under for 221.1 is tempting.

Bengals’ Secret Weapon: Hayden Hurst

When discussing Cincinnati’s impressive attacking force, fans and pundits often focus on Joe Burrow, with good reason. Then comes Ja’Marr Chase. After that, if there’s any time left, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins get mentions. All perfectly fine candidates to explain why the Bengals are so good with the ball. But the offence possesses another weapon, one that may not remain a secret for much longer: Hayden Hurst.

After exposing opposing defences a few times this year while some of other more popular receiving teammates nursed wounds, the ginger tight end has continued his fine play in the postseason. In the Wild Card round against Baltimore, he welcomed six targets with four catches for 45 yards. Last week in Buffalo his stat sheet showed five gobbled passes for 59 yards and a critical first-quarter TD. Right now his over-under in yards against KC reads 34.5, Frankly, with the Chiefs secondary concerned with Chase and Higgins, this could be another excellent day for Hayden Hurst.

Chiefs Running Away by Committee

Similar to our point concerning Cincy’s attack, Kansas City’s offence begins and ends, unsurprisingly, with Patrick Mahomes. In fact, on a more holistic level, much of the discussion and debate surrounding the Chiefs’ offensive prowess is about how they attack through the air. The reality is that KC has a sneakily effective ground game. What helps is that it’s a run attack by committee.

Isiah Pacheco led the way this past season with 830 yards. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider that his average was a stellar 4.9. Mahomes did a lot of damage with his legs as well, totalling 358 yards. In the Divisional game against Jacksonville, Pacheco played marvellously, carrying the ball 12 times for 95 yards. Andy Reid always dials up something special, especially in goal-to-go situations. This feels like a moment when Pacheco can run one into the end zone from just a few yards out, even though Cincy had a top ten defence against the run this season.