New England Patriots 2026 NFL odds, season preview, analysis and predictions
The New England Patriots are coming off a fantastic season that saw them finish 14-3 in the regular season before falling to the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
It was quarterback Drake Maye’s second season in the league, and the sophomore QB did not disappoint, finishing second in MVP voting. Head coach Mike Vrabel was the 2025 AP NFL Coach of the Year, but he didn’t do the team any favours with his off-the-field activities this offseason. However, the team seems fully focused heading into the 2025-26 season, and their biggest offseason move was acquiring star wideout A.J. Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles.
Maye now has a true No. 1 WR to target this season, and the sky is the limit for this Patriots squad, so let’s get into my season preview.
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New England Patriots NFL futures
The reigning AFC Champions won’t surprise as many people if they play well this season, and here are multiple futures markets you can bet on involving New England:
- Win the Super Bowl (+2000)
- Win the AFC (+875)
- To be the No. 1 seed in the AFC (+1000)
- Win the AFC East (+150)
- Make the playoffs (-175)
- Regular season wins: Over 9.5 (-145) | Under 9.5 (+125)
When it comes to player futures, Maye and Brown are the main recipients, and here are three futures markets I’m interested in this season:
- Drake Maye to win MVP (+1400)
- A.J. Brown most receiving touchdowns (+1600)
- Drake Maye most passing yards (+1500)
New England Patriots squad strengths
Last season, this Patriots squad was second in the league in points per game (28.8) and fourth in points allowed (18.8), but their biggest strength this season will be their passing attack. Maye recorded 4,394 passing yards (fourth in the NFL), 31 passing touchdowns (third in the NFL), and a 77.1 QBR (first in the league). As good as these numbers are, I expect them to be even better this season. Maye now has A.J. Brown to target, and they also signed Romeo Doubs to complement a wide receiver room featuring Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, DeMario “Pop” Douglas, and Efton Chism III. There have been trade rumours around Boutte, but if the Patriots can keep the LSU product, they will have weapons all over the field.
The second biggest strength for the Patriots will be their offensive line. Much was said about rookie LT Will Campbell’s poor playoff play, but it’s worth noting that he didn’t look the same after suffering a high ankle sprain towards the end of the regular season. I expect Campbell to be elite this season, and New England further bolstered the left side of the offensive line by signing Alijah Vera-Tucker at left guard and drafting Caleb Lomu with their 2026 first-round pick. If their line can stay healthy, Maye’s blind side will be covered, and the third-year QB could light the league on fire.
New England Patriots squad weaknesses
The biggest weakness for New England this season is the linebacking corps. While veteran Robert Spillane is set to once again be the vital cog in the machine, he is coming off a high ankle sprain last year that derailed the end of his season. Outside of Spillane, there isn’t much depth or experience in this Patriots system, as Jack Gibbens departed in free agency and the team released Jahlani Tavai. They are depending on rookie LB Gabe Jacas to play meaningful minutes, which is always a concern.
Additionally, you can’t talk about the Patriots’ success last season without pointing out that they had the third-easiest schedule entering the 2025-26 season. They now have the sixth-toughest schedule based on last season’s records, and outside of the division, they’ll have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Chiefs, and Broncos. Yes, the schedule is tough, but this Patriots team is improved and should feel confident entering the season.
Drake Maye Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
The third-year QB tallied 31 passing TDs last season, and the Patriots went on to acquire two great WRs in Brown and Doubs, who have combined for 77 receiving TDs over 11 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots’ offensive line should improve this season, giving Maye extra time in the pocket. The UNC product enters his second year in coordinator Josh McDaniels’ system, and with a year under his belt, I could see Maye leading the league in passing TDs. However, I’ll go with a safer bet and back him to record 27 or more this season.