Lions vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Odds, Prediction
Detroit has a bit of a leg up this week as it’s their second exhibition game following last week’s Hall of Fame game. The good news for Atlanta, however, is the Lions didn’t look good in a 34-7 blowout loss against the Chargers.
Detroit is a 3.5-point favourite to win on the NFL pre-season odds, with the total pegged at 32.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The pre-season is a completely different game, so I like to start with how the head coaches have previously attacked exhibition play.
Unfortunately, both coaches have losing pre-season records. With the loss last week, Detroit’s Dan Campbell fell to 5-8 straight up and 6-7 against the spread in his pre-season career. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Raheem Morris is 5-10 SU and and 6-9 ATS overall.
If we go back to last season, Campbell was actually more successful at 2-1 SU in the pre-season. That’s in stark contrast to Morris and the Falcons, who dropped all three exhibition games in 2024.
When it comes to futures plays, the Lions are top Super Bowl contenders at +1000 to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the NFL futures board. Detroit is also a +145 favourite to win the NFC North.
Atlanta is more in the middle-of-the-pack at +8000 to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons have the second-shortest odds to win the NFC South at +220, trailing only Tampa Bay at +100.
Detroit Lions
Luckily with Detroit, we have a little more info on what their strategy could be after last week’s exhibition tilt in Canton, Ohio. Kyle Allen received most of the reps at quarterback, completing nine of 14 pass attempts for 91 yards and two interceptions. Hendon Hooker completed half of his six pass attempts for 18 yards and a pick. Both quarterbacks will likely split reps again this week, so don’t count on Jared Goff getting any snaps.
Detroit finished a league-best (tied with Kansas City) 15-2 last season en route to their second consecutive NFC North crown before an upset loss in the divisional round against Washington. However, oddsmakers clearly expect regression in 2025 as the Lions’ regular season win total is set at 10.5, which would actually put them closer to a bubble playoff team. With a core of Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and a healthy Aidan Hutchinson, I like the Over on Detroit’s win total.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta released their first pre-season depth chart with Michael Penix Jr. listed at starting QB, and Kirk Cousins as his backup. Cousins began last year as the Falcons starter before being benched late in the season. Penix started the last three games of the year and looks like Atlanta’s quarterback of the future.
However, don’t expect Penix or Cousins to see reps this week. Easton Stick and Emory Jones should split duties. Stick played in three pre-season games for the Chargers last year, completing 25 of 51 pass attempts for 303 total yards with one TD and three interceptions. Un-drafted, Jones split last year between Baltimore’s practice squad and the DC Defenders of the UFL.
Atlanta’s win total is set at 7.5, which is reasonable considering their recent history. The Falcons finished with eight wins last year, but had seven wins in each of the previous three seasons. If you’re a believer in Penix, the Over could be the play here.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Lions vs. Falcons?
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DET
ATL