Indianapolis meanwhile enters Week 12 having allowed the fourth-most yards per game. It’s really a matchup that totally plays into Detroit’s offensive flash, but as the say… you don’t play the game on paper and spreadsheets. 

The 5-6 Colts have gained a little mojo after a 28-27 victory last weekend with second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson playing some of the best football of his young career. Richardson’s 305 total yards and three touchdowns showcased the potential of this Colts team, although repeating that kind of performance against the 9-1 Lions is a whole different story. 

And so as a result, the Lions are currently a 7.5-point road favourite with the over-under at 50.5 on the NFL odds. Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium begins at 1 p.m. EST.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Sunday is a battle of two against the spread titans. Detroit’s 8-2 ATS record is atop the NFL this season, with Indianapolis right behind at 8-3. History indicates the Colts are equipped to stop Detroit’s run of terror over the AFC South as Indianapolis 9-2 ATS in their last 11 outings against the NFC North. Detroit’s also dropped five of their last six meetings with Indianapolis.

The total’s gone over 50 for a reason too. As mentioned, Detroit’s 33.6 points per game leads the NFL by a wide margin. History is leaning toward the over too as six of the Lions last seven outings against AFC South clubs have gone over the total, as have four of the last five Lions–Colts contests.

Detroit Lions

When the Lions offence plays near perfect football, odds are they are going to finish the day over 50 points. But if they falter and throw five interceptions, well, they’re still going to win with over 25 points scored. That’s what the Lions three wins against the AFC South have shown at least, as well as Detroit’s 9-1 body of work this season.

The Lions are currently the favourite to win the Super Bowl at +325 odds. Quarterback Jared Goff is third in MVP odds at +600. Goff again took majority of the fourth quarter off last week because of the lead he accrued after passing for 412 yards and four scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in 161 of those yards for two scores, while running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs were back at it with another 10 carries and 50 yards each. So if Detroit feasts on the AFC South and everyone gets fed, it becomes overs galore on Lions player props.

Indianapolis Colts

After a season filled with quarterback flip-flopping, it’s safe to assume head coach Shane Steichen is rolling with his Anthony Richardson, the 22-year-old QB, for the foreseeable future. Richardson has a chance to do something special this weekend if his Colts can knock off the Lions and get back into the AFC playoff picture… and Richardson and Indy may have the tools.

At receiver, Josh Downs is having a breakout sophomore season with 567 yards in nine outings. Alec Pierce is leading the team with 590 yards on 22.7 yards per catch, Michael Pittman Jr. is reliable as they come, and rookie Adonai Mitchell is starting to show flashes with 100 yards combined in the last two weeks. This offence isn’t going to score 40 points, but if the Colts defence can at least slow down Detroit’s blazing offence then we got a game here. 

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Lions vs. Colts?