Tennessee and Jacksonville sit at the bottom of the AFC South, with Houston and Indianapolis firmly atop the division. The Jaguars fell to 2-10 with their 23-20 Week 13 loss against the Texans, officially eliminating them from the playoffs for a second consecutive season. The Titans were routed 42-19 in Washington last week and at 3-9, they are one loss away from officially falling out of postseason contention.

Tennessee is a 3.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 40.0.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This is the first of two meetings for this teams in the month of December. They split the season series last year, but Jacksonville has won three of the last four head-to-heads.

Don’t count on a Jags win this week, however. Not only is quarterback Trevor Lawrence out, but Jacksonville has been terrible on the road even with Lawrence playing. They’ve lost all six road games this year and they’ve dropped nine straight road outings dating to last season.

Tennessee has just one win in five home dates, but that should change this week. The Titans have dominated Jacksonville at Nissan Stadium, winning nine of their last 10 home games against the Jaguars.

One edge Jacksonville has is as a cover option. The Jags are 6-5-1 against the spread, while Tennessee has failed to cover in 10 of 12 games.

Both teams have hit the Over seven times this season, but with Mac Jones starting for Jacksonville, it’s tough to imagine this being a high scoring game.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars whole season essentially imploded last week. They were officially knocked out of playoff contention and star quarterback Trevor Lawrence is likely done for the year anyway. Lawrence, who had missed the previous two games with a shoulder injury, suffered a concussion in a dirty late hit. The 25-year-old has been placed on the IR and he is expected to have surgery on his non-throwing shoulder after he clears concussion protocol.

Mac Jones will take over the reins as Jacksonville’s starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. Jones completed 20 of 32 passes for 235 yards and two TDs in relief of Lawrence last week, but this is still the player who was benched multiple times in favour of Bailey Zappe in New England. I’ve got running back Travis Etienne Jr. circled for a big day carrying the ball with Lawrence out of the lineup.

Tennessee Titans

After returning from injury last month, quarterback Will Levis has quietly being playing some solid football. Since Week 10, Levis has thrown for 960 yards with seven TDs and just two interceptions. His average of 8.35 yards per attempt in that span ranks fourth in the NFL and he’s connected with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for four TDs in the last three games.

This looks like it could be a big stats week for Levis. Jacksonville boasts the worst overall defence in the NFL, allowing an average of 406.4 total yards per game. The Jaguars also allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL (273.3) and they are dead last in pass-rush win rate.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Titans?