Canada vs. Finland Prediction: IIHF Women’s World Championship Odds and Preview
Canada closes out Group B play against Finland on Wednesday, November 11, with puck drop set for 9 a.m. ET at Hockey Arena Herning in Denmark. The Canadians enter with a 3-0 record, 24 goals scored and just one allowed, while Finland comes off an 8-2 win over Japan.
Canada has won all three games by at least four goals, but Finland arrives with some offensive confidence after its best scoring performance of the tournament. Canadian viewers can catch the game on TSN and RDS.
Canada vs. Finland Odds and Betting Outlook
Canada is a -10000 favourite on the IIHF Women’s hockey odds board, with Finland at +2500 and a tie after 60 minutes at +1300. These odds cover regulation time only. A tied game heading into overtime would cash the draw selection.
At -10000, a $100 bet on Canada earns *clicking wildly on a calculator* a whopping $1 in profit. The puck line and total will deserve a closer look once those markets are available.
Canada beat Finland 5-0 at the Olympics in February, although the shots were a much closer 23-17. Ann-Renée Desbiens stopped all 17 Finnish attempts, while Canada scored four times on 14 shots over the final two periods. The result supports another Canadian win, but the shot count offers a reason to be careful about expecting an auto-blowout.
Canada
Canada followed its opening win over Sweden with a 9-0 victory against Japan and a 10-0 win over Denmark. Against the hosts, the Canadians generated 74 shots and allowed six, giving Kayle Osborne a relatively gentle introduction to the tournament. Emma Maltais scored twice, while Laura Stacey finished with a goal and two assists.
The offence has come from throughout the lineup. Nine different Canadians scored against Japan, including defenders Chloe Primerano, Erin Ambrose, Kendall Cooper and Sophie Jaques. That gives Finland more to account for than simply keeping Canada’s leading forwards away from the net. When the Finns collapse around the slot, Canada’s defenders can keep possessions alive and create chances from the point.
Canada has also started quickly, scoring at least twice in the opening period of every game. Another early lead would allow the Canadians to keep attacking without having to take unnecessary risks against a Finnish team playing on a back-to-back.
Finland
Finland bounced back from its loss to Sweden by beating Japan 8-2 on Tuesday, improving to 2-1. The Finns have scored 13 goals and allowed seven through three games, with their strongest offensive performance arriving immediately before their toughest assignment.
Finland showed it could create chances even in defeat against Sweden, putting 27 shots on goal. Petra Nieminen scored its only goal that day, while Sanni Ahola made 28 saves. Generating offence against Canada will require the Finns to move the puck out of their own zone efficiently and give their forwards opportunities to attack before Canada’s defence gets set.
The turnaround is a concern. Wednesday’s puck drop comes just 24 hours after the start of Finland’s game against Japan, while Canada had Tuesday off. Falling behind early would leave the Finns chasing a rested opponent with enough scoring depth to make extended defensive shifts expensive.
Canada vs. Finland Prediction
Canada’s depth, defensive control and rest advantage point to another regulation win. Finland’s eight-goal performance against Japan gives it something to build on, but sustaining that offence will be considerably harder against a Canadian team that has allowed one (1) goal all tournament.
My best guess? A four-goal Canadian victory. Canada -3.5 would be the puck line to examine if offered, with the price determining whether it’s worth backing. A -4.5 handicap would require a bigger margin than my humble prediction.
Winner prediction: Canada in regulation
Projected score: Canada 5, Finland 1