Jaguars vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
Not everything will go perfectly. After a wonderful 2023 and a solid start to 2024, the Houston Texans got a reality check in Week 3, courtesy of a bruising 34-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. In contrast, the Jacksonville Jaguars are experiencing levels of turbulence that suggest the club has big issues. The latest set-back was a 47-10 walloping by the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Our NFL odds think it’s unlikely the Texans will falter as they’re -6 favourites.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Despite that the Jaguars and the Texans quickly went in opposite directions in the second half of their 2023 campaign, Jacksonville won the most recent bout in November of last year, 24-21. In fact, the AFC South rivals split the season series in 2023 and 2022, with the away sides winning all four games. The road team has also won the last five games, dating back to 2021.
As bad as things look in Jacksonville these days, the reality is that the team did successfully cover one spread this season. It happened in Week 1 when they narrowly lost to the Miami Dolphins. However, the two most recent contests were dreadful affairs, hence the 1-2 ATS tally.
Curiously, the Texans have not paid dividends for betters through three weeks. Houston sports a 0-2-1 record against the spread. The push came a fortnight ago when they could only tame the Bears by six points as -6 favourites. The over is also 1-2 through three matches, unexpected for a side whose offence is often praised.
Jacksonville Jaguars
In the aftermath of the Week 3 Monday night massacre up in northern New York, Jags head coach Doug Pederson admitted that everything and everyone about the squad needs to do better and that options must be weighed.
That makes complete sense after the 47-10 drubbing by the Bills, but the reality runs deeper. Jacksonville had the AFC South crown in sight last year by November before everything went astray. Now they’re 0-3 in 2024 and look worse each successive week.
Trevor Lawrence has a QBR of 43.1, good for 25th. He’s only thrown one pick, which is good, but he also only tosses for 186.7 yards per game and has the 22nd-worst yards-per-pass average among QBs who have played twice (6.3 yards). Right now, the offence scores 13.3 points per game and the offensive line is presently ranked 28th by ESPN. By the way, the Texans have a reputable defence.
But the NFL is a crazy, unpredictable league.
Houston Texans
In theory, the Texans should be licking their chops heading into Week 4. They had a chance last week to further solidify their supremacy atop the AFC South by handling the intra-conference Vikings in Minnesota but were bounced 34-7.
Had C.J. Stroud not thrown a pair of picks, maybe the result would have differed. We’ll never know. Minnesota’s defence made Stroud look rather average all afternoon (20-for-31, 21 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs). Stefon Diggs led the team with 10 catches and 94 yards for the game, but Nico Collins leads the NFL with 338 yards through three games.
Something to look for is how potentially thin the Texans might be at running back. As of Thursday both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are listed as questionable. Cam Akers is presently the only healthy, tested back.
A battle between two teams that got blown out in Week 3 looms. Of the two, no one doubts that the Texans are the ones expected to bounce back.
JAC
HOU