The Jaguars saw their chances of finishing last overall and earning the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft end with last week’s 20-13 win over Tennessee but have failed to tally consecutive victories during a 5-17 run dating back to Thanksgiving 2023. The Colts saw their playoff hopes dashed by last week’s crushing 45-33 loss to the New York Giants, which also marked their sixth defeat in nine games.

The Colts return home for Sunday’s season finale perched as 5-point favourites on the NFL Week 18 odds. The Jaguars trail as +185 underdogs on the NFL moneyline and the total is listed at 44.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Colts saw their recent struggles against the Jags extended with a 37-34 loss in Jacksonville in Week 5. Overall, the Colts have lost three straight to the Jaguars and have compiled a dismal 6-12 record in head-to-head play. However, Indianapolis has fared better against the Jaguars on home turf, winning nine of 11 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium since 2012. However, they have remained a betting disappointment, going a meagre 3-15-1 against the spread in 19 dates with Jacksonville including a 2-4-1 ATS in their past seven meetings as home chalk.

The Colts have also been a bad bet during the second half of this season, going 2-6 ATS after opening their campaign on a 7-1 ATS run. The Jaguars’ four wins this season have coming against bottom-feeding opponents. In addition to their victory over Indy, the Jags also swept the season series with Tennessee and topped New England back in October. However, scoring has come at a premium, with the squad averaging just 14.6 points per game and tallying seven or fewer points three times over their past seven games.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Long eliminated from playoff contention, the Jaguars will be playing for pride and to save their jobs on Sunday afternoon. With Trevor Lawrence gone for the season, Mac Jones will have one more chance to prove he is an NFL quarterback. Jones has been steady, if not spectacular, since taking over the starter’s reins, tossing for 1170 yards and seven touchdowns over the past five games while avoiding the pick in his past two outings.

Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has emerged as Jones’ favourite target, racking up 328 receiving yards and making four scoring catches over the past three games. However, Jones will have to perform behind a depleted offensive line, with Walker Little, Ezra Cleveland, and Brandon Scherff all missing time at practice with injuries.

Indianapolis Colts

In the wake of being eliminated from playoff contention, the Colts face a test of character in their bid to find motivation for Sunday’s contest. This team has had a hard time shutting down opposing offences during their second-half swoon, surrendering just over 30 points per game over their past seven outings. And with Anthony Richardson still on the shelf with a back injury, Joe Flacco is once again expected to lead the Colts attack. Flacco has connected for two TDs in each of his past two starts including a 30-20 loss to Buffalo in Week 10 and leaned heavily on receiver Michael Pittman Jr. last week, connecting with the fifth-year receiver on one score and for 109 yards. However, Flacco has also tossed five picks in his past two starts.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Colts?