Before the Jacksonville Jaguars lost 14 straight games, they defeated the now 10-5 Indianapolis Colts. So a head-to-head sweep is on the line when they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday. For Indianapolis, this Week 17 bout is a must-win game — and they also need some help in order to finish anywhere from fourth to seventh in the AFC.

It’s an afternoon kickoff, meaning the Colts will have a decent idea of whether they have a shot at the playoffs when they hit the field. And if it’s still unclear, they’ll be scoreboard watching the Tennessee–Houston game with the Titans also needing to win.

NFL Week 17 Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Not every week you see a double-digit favourite going up against a team they’ve lost to earlier in the season, but that’s the case here with oddsmakers giving Indianapolis 12.5 points to cover.

Here’s where things get funny. Not only are the Jags 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 versus the Colts, but they’re 7-3 straight up in their last 10 meetings with their divisional foe. Suddenly an Indianapolis cover looks not so appeasing.

Jacksonville also has losses of fewer than five points to Houston, Green Bay, Cleveland, and Minnesota in the past two months but have dropped three straight contests by 20 or more.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are ready for the 2020–21 season to end. That’s at least what their 31-10, 40-14, and 41-17 losses the past three weeks say, as well as a first-overall pick awaiting them. It’s clear Jacksonville would go quarterback with the pick too — namely Trevor Lawrence — after ranking 26th in both yards per pass attempt and per pass completion.

Lawrence would be a great piece to compliment James Robinson, the Jaguars’ rookie running back who is third in the NFL with 1,070 yards on the ground. It’s a head-scratcher that no team runs the ball fewer times than Jacksonville. Robinson won’t even be suiting up in Week 17, so Dare Ogunbowale will get the nod again after averaging over five yards per carry last week.

Indianapolis Colts

First and foremost, the Colts need to take care of their own business. Philip Rivers, who eclipsed 4,000 yards on the year last week, tossed two interceptions in the Colts’ Week 1 loss at Jacksonville and has valued the football since then, throwing one pick in his last four starts.

He’s also had the help of an effective ground game that’s posted 155 yards per game the last three weeks, but one that will be missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo who’s out for the year.

Of big concern for Indianapolis is also their pass defence, which has surrendered 1,020 passing yards the last three weeks for the third-most in the league.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Colts?