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Edgar Chaput
Giants vs. Vikings Point Spread: NFL Wildcard Odds, Prediction
Brian Daboll is on the lips of many as a Coach of the Year candidate for his effort in turning New York’s fortunes around. Kevin O’Connell has had quite the rookie campaign himself, guiding the Vikings to a 13-4 record.
Despite the discrepancy in win-loss records, the Vikings are only -3 favourites on the NFL odds, with the over-under set at 48.5 points. Let’s discuss.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These two franchises have thrice met in the payoffs. All happened in a relatively short period of time, from 1994 through to 2001. New York holds the 2-1 edge, historically, with the most recent example being a 41-0 drubbing in the 2001 NFC Championship game. They did meet in Week 16, which ended memorably 27-24 for the Vikings.
As mentioned, New York hasn’t played a minute of playoff football since 2016, when they lost in the Wild Card round to the Packers. Structurally and roster-wise, this is an entirely new breed of Giants players and coaches, many of whom are engaging in do-or-die football for the first time. Because New York finished 9-7-1 but were underdogs so often this year, they actually went a stunning 13-4 ATS.
The Vikings are slightly more regular playoff participants. Most recently was a Divisional round game against the 49ers in 2019 after Kirk Cousins and company had topped the Saints in New Orleans the week prior in the Wild Card. True cardiac kids this year, they could only muster a 7-9-1 showing ATS, despite winning most of their contests. Hence a -3 spread. The franchise still searches for its first-ever Super Bowl.
New York Giants
Not much can be made of the Giants’ Week 18 contest away to Philadelphia given that coach Daboll opted to rest most of his key players. To that effect, the backups did their side proudly, only losing 22-16, limiting the Eagles’ offence to field goals most of the afternoon.
Success has been predicated on keeping games close on defence and taking care of business with the run. Saquon Barkley finally had a year to remember (for once he didn’t miss a ton of games). QB Daniel Jones was the secret ingredient, sprinting to the tune of 708 yards. They’re essentially a terrific rushing team (fourth in the NFL) but middling to poor in all other offensive categories.
The defence is injury plagued, with Leonard Williams (DE), Azeez Ojulari (LB), Adoree’ Jackson (CB), and Jason Pinnock (CB) all listed as Questionable.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minneapolis-based squad was the master of the one-score game in 2022, a sporting a remarkable 11-0 record in games decided by eight points or less. The contests were not just back-and-forth affairs in the traditional sense but were oddly characterized by long sequences when Minnesota would go to sleep on offence and defence, only to wake up when danger rang and win the game. They did so 11 eleven times, literally without failure.
They’re a top-10 offence in most categories except rushing, which is curious given they have Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson has been sensational, catching for 1,809 yards and 8 TDs.
They obviously don’t fear close contests, which this most likely will be. It wouldn’t even be the first time this year they’d be involved in a heart-stopper with the Giants.
Za’Darius Smith (LB) is Questionable, as are Harrison Smith (S) and Cameron Dantzler (CB)
NYG
MIN