The Atlanta Falcons are still in the playoff hunt, but every win matters. The Falcons improved to 7-7 with a sloppy 15-9 win in Las Vegas last week, but they still trail the 8-6 Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta will likely need to win out against the Giants, Commanders and Panthers to punch their ticket to the postseason.

The Giants are already guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the seventh time in the last eight years, so last week’s 35-14 loss against Baltimore doesn’t change anything in the long run. New York is now riding a nine-game losing streak and at 2-12, they are tied with the Raiders for the worst record in the NFL.

The Falcons are 8.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 42.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Atlanta has won the last three head-to-heads in this all-time series, but this is the first meeting in three years. Overall, the Giants have a 5-4 edge in wins since 2006, with the Over hitting just once in that span.

If you’ve been fading both these teams this season you’re likely happy. If you’ve been backing them to cover, not so much. New York is the second-worst cover option in the NFL at 3-10-1 against the spread, while the Falcons haven’t been much better at 5-8-1 ATS.

It’s a bit of a ‘pick your poison’ scenario in this game. The Giants have covered just once on their nine-game losing streak and Atlanta has failed to cover in five straight.

You can likely expect this to be a low scoring game. Both teams have played the Under in nine of 14 games this year and the last six head-to-heads have also finished below the number.

New York Giants

After relying on Tommy DeVito, who left with a concussion, and third-stringer Tim Boyle, who threw for 123 yards with a TD and interception last week, the Giants are set to turn back to Drew Lock against Atlanta. Lock missed Week 15 due to heel and elbow issues, but he’ll return on Sunday. He struggled in his only two starts this year, throwing for 405 total yards, no TDs and two interceptions. Lock has also been sacked eight times in those two games, which is concerning considering he’ll be facing an Atlanta defence that has recorded at least four sacks in three straight games.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are making an extremely bold move this week and benching veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in favour of rookie Michael Penix Jr. It’s the first career NFL start for Penix, who was the 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up out of Washington before being drafted eighth overall by Atlanta. It’s a risky move, but the Falcons had to move on from Cousins, who has thrown nine interceptions and just one TD over the last five games. Luckily for Penix, he’ll be facing a Giants defence that posted the worst pass defence success rate (34.5 per cent) of any team in Week 15.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Giants vs. Falcons?