Falcons vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 19, 2018

calvin ridley

The American Thanksgiving NFL tripleheader closes with one of the NFC’s better rivalries as the Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints.

Atlanta
7-9
AT
November 22, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread +13 -110
Moneyline +500
Over / Under o +61.5

37%

Betting Action

63%

Pointspread -13 -110
Moneyline -700
Over / Under u +61.5

37%

Betting Action

63%

The NFL added a Thanksgiving night game in 2006 as part of the weekly Thursday night package.

It’s the third all-time Thanksgiving game for Atlanta, which beat the visiting Colts in 2007 and lost in Detroit in 2005. It’s the first time hosting for New Orleans; the Saints won their previous game on the holiday in Dallas in 2010.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

New Orleans goes for the season sweep as it was a short underdog Week 3 in Atlanta (no one knew how good the Saints were yet) and won a wild 43-37 overtime affair. There were lead changes all day, including three in the fourth quarter alone. Drew Brees, not the most mobile quarterback in the world, tied it at 37-all with 1:15 left in regulation on a 7-yard run. If a team that gets the ball first in OT scores a touchdown, the game is over. The Saints went on a more than seven-minute drive to start the extra session, capped by a 1-yard Brees run to win it.

Brees threw for 396 yards and three scores in addition to those two unlikely rushing TDs. Matt Ryan threw for 374 yards and five touchdowns. Rookie Calvin Ridley was a monster with seven catches for 146 yards and three scores. Just a fun game to watch, as most Falcons-Saints matchups are.

The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta’s playoff hopes are nearly dead following Sunday’s 22-19 home upset loss to Dallas – the Falcons were hoping to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl in its own stadium. At 4-6, that’s incredibly unlikely as only 12 teams out of 163 since 1990 have qualified for the playoffs after starting 4-6. The Falcons did rally from down 10 to Dallas in the fourth, but after tying it allowed Dallas to march 51 yards on 10 plays to set up the winning 42-yard field goal as time expired.

Matt Ryan threw for 291 yards and a TD in the losing effort. Julio Jones caught six for 118 yards and that score. It was his fifth straight game with at least 100 yards and third in a row with a TD. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant returned after missing three games due to injury and was 4-for-4 on field goals; he’s 13-for-13 on the year.

New Orleans Saints

Maybe the most impressive win by any team this season was the Saints’ 48-7 destruction of the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday. New Orleans outgained Philadelphia 546-196 and scored at least 10 points in every quarter. Brees continued his MVP-calibre season in throwing for 363 yards and four scores. He leads the NFL in QB rating and has 25 TD passes to just one interception at age 39. Brees has accomplished everything in his Hall of Fame career but hasn’t won an MVP Award.

The Saints, on an NFL-high nine-game winning streak, have the league’s No. 1 offence and have scored 144 combined points the past three weeks, a franchise record over any three-game span. New Orleans is only the fourth team in NFL history to score at least 45 points in three straight games.

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction

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