Falcons vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 02, 2024

It could be the final game with their respective teams for head coaches Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen when Atlanta visits New Orleans on the final Sunday of the regular season.

Atlanta
7-10
AT
January 07, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread -23.5 -155
Pointspread ++23.5 +120

The home side opened as a 3-point favourite on the NFL odds. The winner might take the NFC South. 

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

When asked recently about the status of third-year head coach Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank did not guarantee Smith would be back next season, and it would be a pretty big surprise at this point with the franchise stuck in neutral, especially offensively. The Falcons will address quarterback this offseason either via trade (Justin Fields?) free agency (Russell Wilson?) or the draft.

Dennis Allen is in his second season as Saints head coach, and he has a much better chance of returning. Allen is a defensive-minded guy and that unit has been pretty good all season, but the Saints will enter yet another offseason in salary-cap hell, meaning there’s only so much they can do to improve other than the draft.

In Week 12, the Falcons were 1-point home favourites against the Saints and won 24-15. Desmond Ridder really struggled under centre in completing 13 of 121 for only 168 yards and two picks, but he did throw a big TD pass to running back Bijan Robinson with about 10 minutes left for a 21-12 lead. Ridder has since been benched for Taylor Heinicke. Derek Carr threw for 304 yards for New Orleans but no TDs and a pick. His first season there has been wildly inconsistent but he’ll surely be back in 2024 because of his contract. 

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has just one path to the playoffs and likely to save Coach Arthur Smith’s job: Win here and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at Carolina, and the Falcons win the NFC South. The Bucs shouldn’t lose to the two-win Panthers, but it’s not out of the question. Smith has juggled starting quarterbacks a few times this season. Veteran Taylor Heinicke started Sunday’s blowout loss in Chicago but was pulled in the fourth quarter because he aggravated an ankle injury that limited him in practice throughout last week. The Bears also scored 10 points off of Heinicke’s three turnovers. So it might be second-year Desmond Ridder back under centre. Either way, the team will be adding its presumed 2024 starting quarterback this offseason. The Falcons were 7-10 in 2021, 7-10 in 2022 and would finish 7-10 again with a loss Sunday – all three seasons under Smith. 

New Orleans Saints

The Saints win the NFC South with a victory or tie and a Bucs loss in Carolina. New Orleans can also get a wild card spot but must win or tie and have Seattle lose in Arizona and Green Bay fall at home to Chicago. Highly unlikely both occur. “None of it matters if we don’t take care of business against an Atlanta team … that beat us at their place the last time,” Coach Dennis Allen said. “I think our focus really needs to be on, how do we go out and play a really good game in the dome against Atlanta?” The Saints have won three of their past four following a 23-13 upset win at Tampa Bay on Sunday. They lead the NFL in scoring defence (13.8 PPG) over that span and QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in completion per centage (73%). Star running back Alvin Kamara, also a huge threat in the passing game, is in some question for Week 18 as he sprained his ankle on Sunday. 

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Falcons vs. Saints?

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