Falcons vs. Commanders Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput | Updated Dec 27, 2024

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

If the cards land a certain way, Week 17’s Sunday night match between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders could be a playoff preview.

Atlanta
8-9
AT
December 29, 2024, 8:20 PM ET
FedExField
Washington
12-5
Pointspread +5 -110
Moneyline +170
Over / Under o +46
Pointspread -5 -110
Moneyline -210
Over / Under u +46

It seems wild to think that Atlanta and Washington may step on the gridiron to play some meaningful January football against each other, but the Falcons’ fortunes have suddenly shifted favourably. They manhandled the New York Giants last week 34-7 to improve to 8-7 and lead the NFC South. The Commanders are mathematically out of contention for the NFC East crown but incidentally earned a bold win over the Eagles last week, fighting back from a major deficit to claim a 36-33 win.

Our NFL odds think the host Commanders will get their 11th win of the season, pinning them as -4 favourites.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Not to bring up bad memories, but looking at the recent history between the Falcons and Commanders, there is a clear demarcation between before and after the global events of 2020. Before that, the Georgia-based franchise rode a six-game winning streak that stretched from 2006 through 2018. Since then, Washington has claimed three consecutive contests.

How quickly things can change in the NFL. Two weeks ago the Falcons headed into a Monday night game with Kirk Cousins under centre. He played horribly, but Atlanta still won. Last week, head coach Raheem Morris opted for 2024 first-round draftee Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta won easily, Penix looked good, and now the Falcons might win the division. Not only did they win outright in Week 16, but it was their first covered spread in six weeks. The Falcons are 6-8-1 ATS on the season.

Things are running more smoothly in Washington, although their superior record won’t change the fact that their playoff journey, should they have one, will be mostly on the road. The spread has been more of a struggle recently, as the Commanders have only covered twice in their last six matches. Two players critical to their success are questionable as of Dec. 26: WR Terry McLaurin (ankle) and CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring).

Atlanta Falcons

Whatever happens the rest of the season for the Falcons, they and their fans needed a game like last Sunday’s 34-7 stomping over the Giants.

The truth is Penix didn’t have to do that much. He finished 18/27 for 202 yards and was picked off once (although it was entirely WR Kyle Pitts’ fault). Still, those are far from bad numbers given that he’s being thrown into the lion’s den at a critical juncture of the season. But it was the defence that ruled the day. Jessie Bates III returned a 55-yard pick to the house in the second quarter, and Matthew Judon did likewise for 27 yards in the third period. Other than that, RB Bijan Robinson scampered for 94 yards on the ground and punched it in twice.

Atlanta got the cozy home win against a weak opponent. Sunday night on the road will be a far bigger test.

Washington Commanders

If the Washington Commanders understand the brilliance of what they accomplished in Week 16, they should be riding a wave of momentum.

First and foremost, they grounded the Eagles, something most teams have failed to do this season. Second, they did so by mounting a brazen comeback despite trailing 27-14 when the final quarter commenced. Jayden Daniels connected with Olamide Zaccheaus for a 4-yard score to make it 27-21, then with Zaccheaus again on a wild play that went 49 yards to flip the script 28-27 for Washington.

A pair of late Philly field goals only made the Commanders game-winning drive all the more dramatic, capped off with a 9-yard strike from Daniels to Jamison Crowder with just six ticks left on the clock.

The Commanders are now fifth in the NFL in total yards gained per contest (373.5) and fourth in points scored (28.8).

Who Will Win Falcons vs. Commanders?

NFL Predictions
SportsInteraction