The Texans enjoyed a bye last week after eking out a 23-20 win in Jacksonville in Week 13 and can clinch the divisional crown with a victory over the Dolphins combined with a loss by Indianapolis in its Week 15 date with Denver. The Dolphins are gunning for a fifth win in six games that will keep their fading playoff hopes alive after knocking off the beleaguered New York Jets in a 32-26 victory last weekend but must overcome a dismal 2-6 run in their past eight road games.

The Texans lead the way as 3-point favourites on the NFL Week 15 odds. The Dolphins are +125 underdogs on the NFL moneyline and the total is pegged at 47.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Dolphins have earned the win in three of their past four dates with the Texans, capped by a decisive 30-15 home victory in 2022, but have fallen to defeat in five previous road dates with Houston and have been outscored by an average of 19.5 points in their two most recent visits to NRG Stadium. However, Miami could be positioned to rewrite that narrative after overcoming a brutal start to the season with wins in four of five outings while scoring 28.4 points per game. The Texans are on the brink of another divisional crown despite failing to record consecutive wins during a shaky 3-4 run that features outright losses in their past two home games. The Texans have also lost two straight immediately following a bye and have covered the spread just twice in seven home contests.

Miami Dolphins

If the Dolphins are going to muscle their way back into the AFC playoff picture, they’re going to have to do so while managing a rash of injuries. Fortunately, the list of injured players does not include Tua Tagovailoa, who has powered the Dolphins’ resurgence with 14 total touchdown passes in his past six games, capped by a two-TD, 331-yard performance in last week’s win over the Jets. However, Tua’s receiving corps has not been spared, with receivers Tyreek Hill, Jayden Waddle, Grant DuBose, and Dee Eskridge all missing time at practice along with rusher Raheem Mostert, who remains limited by a hip injury.

Houston Texans

The Texans have benefited from their bye week and return to action largely in good health, Quarterback CJ Stoud will be looking to build on a steady one-TD, 242-yard outing two weeks ago versus the Jags and has now connected on three TD passes in two games after finding the end zone just twice in his previous five appearances. Receiver Nico Collins has steadily regained his form while seeing his targets increase after missing time in October due to injury. Collins topped the century mark for the first time with 119 receiver yards versus Jacksonville and has seen all four of his touchdown passes this season come on home turf. Rusher Joe Mixon has also emerged as a reliable target, topping 100 yards in six of eight outings and has accountd for 11 of Houston’s 14 total scoring runs this season.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Texans?