Dolphins vs. Raiders Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 21, 2020

tua tagovailoa dolphins

It’s a game with potentially major AFC playoff ramifications on Saturday afternoon – the last game of an NFL tripleheader – when the Dolphins visit the Raiders.

Miami
10-6
AT
December 26, 2020, 8:15 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas
8-8
Pointspread -3 +100
Moneyline -140
Over / Under o +50.5

72%

Betting Action

28%

Pointspread +3 -120
Moneyline +116
Over / Under u +50.5

72%

Betting Action

28%

Miami opened as a 2.5-point favourite on the NFL odds with a total of 48.

NFL Week 16 Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Miami hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016 and just that one time since 2009. The Dolphins almost surely are going to be a Wild-Card team – it’s just a matter of which slot. Brian Flores has done a tremendous job there and will get NFL Coach of the Year votes. Look out next year, too, as this team is loaded with young talent and stacked with 2021 high draft picks thanks to a previous trade with Houston. This will be Miami’s first-ever trip to Las Vegas (I’m sure many players have been there!).

The Raiders haven’t made the playoffs also since 2016 and just that one time since 2003. Whether they get in will come down to if they can win here and then Week 17 in Denver. Even winning out might not do it for Coach Jon Gruden’s team.

The Dolphins have won eight of the past 10 in the series and covered in seven of those. That includes the most recent meeting early in the 2019 season when Miami was a 28-20 home winner over the Oakland Raiders. Ryan Tannehill was the Fins’ QB that day and threw three TD passes but is now with Tennessee. Derek Carr, still the Raiders’ QB, threw for 345 yards and a score but was picked off twice.

Miami Dolphins

Miami eliminated the New England Patriots from playoff contention with Sunday’s 22-12 home victory over the Pats. The Dolphins gouged a very good defence for a season-high 250 rushing yards, a whopping 6.0 yards per carry. Rookie running back Salvon Ahmed, who had missed three straight games with a shoulder injury, had a career-best 122 yards on the ground. He was the first Dolphins player to rush for 100-plus yards since December 2018. Miami had gone 31 straight games without a 100-yard rusher, which was the NFL’s longest active streak.

The Fins had to run the ball a lot because rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa was missing his top two wideouts, DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant, and No. 1 tight end Mike Gesicki to injury so monitor their status. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its past seven after a win.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders’ playoff hopes are on life support after they flat-out blew a 30-27 home overtime loss to the Chargers on Thursday in Week 15. It’s quite rare for a team that scores first in overtime under the current format to lose but that’s what happened. The Raiders were without four defensive starters due to injury as well as offensive coordinator Greg Olson, who tested positive for COVID-19. Derek Carr injured his groin on a scramble near the goal line in the first quarter and didn’t return.

Former Heisman winner Marcus Mariota took over and played well, throwing for 226 yards with a TD and pick and rushing for 88 yards and a score. It almost surely will be Mariota starting here, meaning it will be the NFL’s first all-Hawaiian starting QB matchup between Mariota and Miami rookie Tua Tagovailoa – they went to the same high school (obviously years apart) and are good friends. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 after a loss.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Raiders?

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