Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
It’s an AFC East battle between struggling 1-3 teams in Week 5, with the Dolphins heading to New England to face the Pats.
The Patriots opened as slim one-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 35.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Early betting action favours New England by roughly a 60/40 margin, but the line has remained steady at -1. With almost 75 per cent of bettors taking the Over, the total has risen to 36.5 as of Friday afternoon, which is still the second-lowest total of the week.
Miami swept the season series last year and they’ve won six of the last seven overall. Of course, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a major piece of that success, so recent head-to-head results shouldn’t be much of a factor.
Miami has brutalized bettors as they haven’t covered once this season and they are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games dating to last year. They are also riding a six-game ATS losing streak as underdogs. The Dolphins’ offence has completely fallen apart without Tagovailoa, putting up just 15 combined points over the last two weeks.
New England hasn’t been much more profitable, going 1-2-1 ATS through four weeks. Something’s gotta give between these teams, however, as the Pats have failed to cover in five straight games as the favourite.
Miami Dolphins
Miami made history on Monday, becoming the first team since the 2017 Cleveland Browns (who went 0-16) to not hold a lead at any point in the first four games of the season. Yes, the Dolphins beat Jacksonville in Week 1, but that was a game-winning field goal as time expired. The futility continued last week, with Tyler Huntley making his Miami debut in place of Tagovailoa (concussion) and Skylar Thompson (ribs). Huntley, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad, completed 14 of 22 pass attempts for just 96 yards, although he did lead the team with 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
One player the Dolphins need more from this week is second-year running back De’Von Achane, who’s play has dipped dramatically in Tagovailoa’s absence. In two weeks without Tagovailoa, Achane has rushed 21 times for 45 yards and caught six passes for 42 yards. For context, Achance had 22 carries for 96 rushing yards and seven catches for 69 receiving yards in Week 2 alone.
New England Patriots
Since Tom Brady left for greener pastures in 2020, the once dominant New England Patriots have only made the playoffs once and they have an abysmal 29-38 record overall. Not much has changed with Jerod Mayo taking over from Bill Belichick as the Pats are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS this season. New England has been held to under 150 passing yards in each of the first four games of the season for the first time since 1971, leading to the question of when Drake Maye will take over from Jacoby Brissett?
Brissett only has two passing TDs on the year and his completion percentage has finished under 60 per cent in two of four games. Still, there’s a reluctance to start Maye, the third overall pick in the 2024 draft. New England’s offensive line was already one of the weakest in the NFL and now it’s dealing with multiple injuries. Brissett has been sacked a ridiculous nine times over the last two weeks, so you have to think the Patriots will hold back from starting Maye until they can find the right guys to protect him.
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