The 8-7 Dolphins have dropped four straight games and now have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in concussion protocol. Teddy Bridgewater is currently in line to start in place of the injured Tagovailoa. The 7-8 Patriots have dropped two straight too, but can get back into a playoff spot with a win over the Dolphins.

Kickoff at Gillette Stadium starts at 1 p.m. EST, with New England a three-point favourite and the total at 41.5 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Tagovailoa’s absence appears to be swaying the point spread here, as the Dolphins already beat the Patriots by double digits this season. Even without their starting quarterback, Miami can still rely on 1,000-yard receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to do the heavy lifting on offence.

Miami’s struggled on the road this season, winning three of their eight road games. Home field advantage hasn’t been much of one for New England though as they’re 3-4 at home so far. But the Patriots are also 11-2 in their last 13 times hosting Miami. Then when it comes to the total, these teams are opposite. Six of Miami’s eight road games have went over, and five of New England’s home games have finished under the total.

Miami Dolphins

Throughout his career Teddy Bridgewater has proven to be a competent quarterback, so if it ends up being him under centre Miami should be in a solid spot still. Bridgewater’s played in three games this season and has 522 passing yards to go with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

During their four-game skid, the Dolphins have allowed over 30 points twice and scored over 20 points once. Tagovailoa hasn’t been playing his best football either, as a trio of interceptions blew any chance Miami had at beating Green Bay last week. The Dolphins are now tied for the third-worst turnover differential in the NFL at -5.

New England Patriots

A 22-point comeback fell just short last weekend for New England, who failed to score on offence until the final quarter. The Patriots got another defensive score via a Marcus Jones 69-yard pick six, while Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers hauled in touchdown receptions from Mac Jones. The Patriots had an uncharacteristic 61 rushing yards too, with Rhamondre Stevenson also fumbling away what was shaping up to be a game-winning drive.

New England’s now 24th in yards this season with 317.2 per game, and are especially struggling through the air. Jones is averaging 212.5 passing yards per game this season and is still seeking his 10th touchdown pass this season despite playing in 12 games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Patriots?