Dolphins vs. Colts Point Spread: NFL Week 7 Odds, Prediction
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Nik Kowalski
The 3-3 Colts have been without Richardson (oblique) since midway through Week 4, and the veteran Joe Flacco’s again done an admirable job in relief duty by finishing Week 4 with a win versus Pittsburgh, defeating Tennessee last week, and losing 37-34 at Jacksonville in between. This work’s primarily been without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who remains out with an ankle injury that doesn’t look to be fully healed in time for Sunday’s tilt with the Dolphins who are wounded as well.
Miami’s coming off a bye, and a win at New England before that. But fact is without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) playing quarterback, this Dolphins squad is in tough. Barring a miracle, Tua’s not going to be playing at Indianapolis which leaves the starting QB duties again to Tyler Huntley. On the bright side, running back De’Von Achane appears to be healthy from a concussion of his own. Achane’s re-inseration adds what Miami does best: speed.v
Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium goes at 1 p.m. EDT with the Colts a three-point favourite at home and the over-under at 43.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Dolphins have the NFL’s lowest-scoring offence in the NFL with 12 points per game, and have five touchdowns on the season. It’s a stunning reality but the injury to Tua Tagovailoa has, as a result, neutralized the speed of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Co. all the way to league-worst production. The Over’s 4-1 in Miami’s five outings and the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS, with oddsmakers continually adjusting against Miami’s favour. This week, the Dolphins come into Indianapolis as a field goal underdog. The 3-3 Colts have been favoured just twice this season.
Seven of the Colts last nine home games have gone Over the total, which has more to do with Indianapolis’ defence. The Colts rank 30th in yards allowed (389.5 per game), so if Miami can’t produce in this spot then all hope may be lost this season. Miami’s covered the spread in nine of their last 10 visits to Indianapolis, so history’s on their side.
Miami Dolphins
A conclusion from some bye week reflection for Miami had to be in this realm: force feed Tyreek Hill, and to a lesser extent Jaylen Waddle too. Hill’s 40 targets lead the Dolphins but the superstar, game-changing receiver has yet to even come close to his Week 1 performance of 130 yards on 12 targets. Hill got back up to 10 targets in Miami’s 15-10 win before the bye — coincidence?
For the positions they’re getting put in, the Dolphins defence is holding its own and then some. Miami’s fifth in the NFL with 285.4 yards against per game, excelling against the pass but having issues stopping a good running game. Depending on the Colts’ injuries, they may have a full arsenal back on offence which means a greater will to pound the rock. If Miami’s front can specifically take care of the run, the team should be in a good spot to win.
Indianapolis Colts
While the injury status of quarterback Anthony Richardson is quite positive news, the same can’t be said for others. The following offensive starters did not practice Wednesday for Indianapolis: running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), wide receivers Josh Downs (toe) and Michael Pittman Jr. (back), and offensive linemen Ryan Kelly (calf) and Braden Smith (knee). If even one of these players is out for Indianapolis, they could be in trouble. Downs in particular would be a tough blow, given he’s put up over 65 yards in three consecutive outings.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts are coming off one of their stronger games defensively. Some of that had to do with Indianapolis’ opponent, Tennessee, but the Colts defence stepped up with some key plays in the fourth quarter — namely a Julian Blackmon interception.
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