Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 9 Odds, Prediction
With every other AFC East team stuck at two wins apiece, the Buffalo Bills look like locks to win the division at 6-2 following a 31-10 win in Seattle last week. The Dolphins dropped their own Week 8 game, 28-27 versus Arizona, but they remain second in the division at 2-5.
Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 48.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This has been a surprisingly lopsided head-to-head series in recent years. Not only has Buffalo won the last five meetings, they’ve won nine of the last 10 overall and eight straight home games against Miami.
The Dolphins have been a disaster for bettors this season as they sit 1-6 against the spread. That continues a trend from last year that has seen Miami fail to cover in nine of their last 10 games overall. It’s a different story for the Bills. Buffalo is 5-3 ATS in 2024 and they’ve covered in four of their last five divisional games.
You might want to hammer the Over in this game as these teams always seem to end up in a shootout. They’ve averaged a combined total of 54 points in the last five head-to-heads and they’ve finished above 48.5 points in the last three meetings in Buffalo. Even the first game in Miami this season, the Bills and Dolphins were on pace for 68 points before Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion.
Miami Dolphins
Miami’s offence looked completely different with Tagovailoa back under centre last week, but it wasn’t enough to hold off the Cardinals. Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and a touchdown, but it was his connection with Tyreek Hill that was great to see for Dolphins fans. Hill hauled in six receptions for a team-high 72 receiving yards. It was Hill’s most receptions and receiving yards in a game since Tagovailoa was injured earlier this season against Buffalo.
This week could be a bit of a bloodbath if Miami’s defence has another game like they did last week. The Cardinals duo of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. torched the Dolphins’ defence for 235 combined receiving yards with Kyler Murray throwing for a season-high 307 yards. That’s a recipe for a blowout against an elite offence like Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season last week, but it didn’t matter in the Bills’ blowout win. Allen finished with 238 passing yards, two TDs and the one pick. Although Baker Mayfield has thrown a league-high 21 TD passes, Allen’s 14-1 TD-INT ratio has to be the much more impressive stat. James Cook had a massive day last week, rushing for 111 yards and two TDs. Cook has eight total TDs this season and he’s found the end zone in five of seven games.
One surprise for Buffalo has been the lack of production from receiver Amari Cooper. In two games since being acquired from Cleveland, Cooper has just five catches on seven targets for 69 yards. Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman all saw more targets last week and were much more productive. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Miami has one of the better pass defences in the league, so you should probably expect more production from Cook than any of the Bills’ receivers.
MIA
BUF