Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Wild Card Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jan 11, 2023

NFL: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Their roads to get here differed greatly, but the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will line up opposite each other for the third and final time on Sunday afternoon in the Wild Card round.

January 15, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
New Era Field
Pointspread +14 -110
Moneyline +820
Over / Under o +44.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -14 -110
Moneyline -1122
Over / Under u +44.5


Betting Action


Things looked dire during the final month for Miami, but they eked out a win over the Jets in Week 18. Thanks to Buffalo’s vanquishing of New England, snuck into the seventh seed.

The NFL experts have put up lots of chalk for the Bills. They sit as -11 favourites on the NFL odds. The over-under is established at 44.5 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

There have been precious few post-season meetings between these franchises. All four transpired during the 1990s. Buffalo holds a 3-1 edge, the lone defeat being 24-17 in the 1999 Wild Card. The 1991 (44-34 Bills win) and 1993 (29-10 Bills win) contests were during Buffalo’s previous era of greatness. The 1995 Wild Card game was the tail end of Buffalo’s iconic 90s run, but they still won 37-22.

The current generation of Bills has plenty of playoff experience, as it begins its fourth appearance in five seasons, with memorable wins and losses under its belt. The Dolphins haven’t made it this far since the 2016 campaign.

Miami and Buffalo naturally faced each other twice this season. Each game was replete with drama. Tua Tagovailoa’s first concussion of the season happened in Week 3’s tilt down in Florida. There was sweltering heat, and Buffalo’s final drive which ended on a failed fourth-down conversion. The 21-19 game was epic and memorable.

December up in New York state had greater stakes, more offence and, mercifully, no injury to Tua. The 32-29 comeback victory for the Bills, courtesy of Tyler Bass’ game-ending 25-yard field goal as the snow blew through the stadium, clinched a playoff birth.

Miami Dolphins

Mike McDaniel’s side finished with a 9-8 record. It was not long ago that the Dolphins competed for first place in the AFC East with a shiny 8-3 record. But a disastrous three-game road swing (that concluded with the game in wintry Buffalo) dashed any hopes of that happening.

Then came Christmas Day at home to the Packers. The Dolphins raced out to a 20-10 lead until the offence completely stalled. It was also the last time Tua played. Conversations swirled as to whether his three fourth-quarter interceptions were the early signs of the current head injury. Whatever the case, it was the fourth of what would be a five-game losing streak. Skyler Thompson was under center against the Jets for the critical Week 18 matchup, an old-fashioned slugfest that ended 11-6.

Tagovailoa is still listed as questionable, as are running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

Buffalo Bills

Sean McDermott’s side enters the playoffs feeling confident and relieved. Confident because they’re 13-3 and again proved to be an NFL powerhouse. Relieved since their fallen brother Damar Hamlin is showing promising signs of recovery from his nightmarish experience on Monday night two weeks ago.

Yes, only 16 games. If that comes into play for the AFC championship game, we’ll talk about that then. For now, Buffalo took care of business in Week 18 against a Patriots team that for a while did good on its intention to earn the final playoff spot. But two brilliant kick-off returns by Nyheim Hines for touchdowns, two sensational TDs tossed by Josh Allen, and a trio of second-half interceptions on Mac Jones were the story of the 35-23 win.

Buffalo’s defence is still banged up, with Von Miller and Micah Hyde on Injured reserve.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Bills?