Dolphins vs. Bears Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Odds, Prediction
Ben Johnson is making his Chicago Bears head coaching debut, with his team sitting at -3 on the NFL odds while the total is 32.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Just a reminder that preseason spreads, especially in Week 1, are usually quite small as are totals. Obviously, the key to any exhibition game is to determine how long key guys on either side might play – if at all – and whether each head coach is the type who believes that any victory is a good thing or not.
We have no idea whether Ben Johnson cares about preseason results because the new Bears head coach is in his first top job. He spent the past three seasons as the coordinator of arguably the most electric offence in football with the Detroit Lions. The Bears fired defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus after a Thanksgiving 2024 loss in Detroit. Johnson was always the first choice to replace him.
Offensive-minded Mike McDaniel enters his fourth season as Miami’s head coach, and he’s on a bit of a hot seat. McDaniel has turned Tua Tagovailoa into a really good NFL quarterback and the Dolphins are 28-23 under McDaniel with two playoff appearances. But they lost both of those playoff games and backslid in 2024. Miami is 5-4 SU & ATS in the preseason under McDaniel. Usually when a team wins in the preseason, it covers the spread because it’s so small.
Miami and Chicago don’t play in the 2025 regular season and haven’t met in a game that counted since 2022. The Bears have won the past three preseason meetings, most recently in 2021 at home.
Miami Dolphins
With how concussion-prone starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is, it’s doubtful that he takes a snap on Sunday. We can at least look at what Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel did in last year’s preseason opener, which Miami won 20-13 at home vs. Atlanta. No Dolphins starters played, and considering this is a veteran team that has the same coaching staff for the most part as 2024, it’s not likely any starters play Sunday, either.
Former Jets first-round pick Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers, a seventh-round rookie out of Texas, should take the QB snaps – mostly Ewers. Defensively, the Dolphins already have lost cornerbacks Artie Burns and Kader Kohou to season-ending injuries and added veterans Jack Jones and Mike Hilton to fill spots. As it was, the Dolphins had released or traded (Jalen Ramsey) both of their starting corners from last season, and Kohou was the only returner. So that’s a huge position to watch in terms of who wins the starting jobs.
Chicago Bears
As of publication, new Bears coach Ben Johnson is undecided on his starters seeing the field on Sunday. The team has another home game in Week 2, and that’s when they should play the most ahead of the finale on Aug. 22 in Kansas City. I tend to think the starters may play a little simply as the team is learning a new offence – Johnson calls the plays – and defence. QB Caleb Williams was rather inconsistent as a rookie and a big reason why Johnson was hired. He has been inconsistent in camp, too, so the 2024 No. 1 overall pick could use as many game reps as possible.
The Bears will host the Dolphins for a joint practice on Friday at Halas Hall, which could serve as such. Most of the QB time Sunday should go to Tyson Bagent, last year’s No. 2, and undrafted Austin Reed. Probably the biggest camp battle is at left tackle to protect Williams’ blindside between incumbent starter Braxton Jones, second-year Kiran Amegadjie and rookie Ozzy Trapilo. Early reports are that Trapilo could be winning. Pro Bowl cornerback Jaylon Johnson is out with a leg injury
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Bears?
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