Cowboys vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Nov 13, 2018

matt ryan falcons large

The Falcons don’t hide their offensive plans – they rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (89.8) but sit second in passing yards (319.1).

Dallas
10-6
AT
November 18, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
7-9
Pointspread +3.5 -110
Moneyline +165
Over / Under o +50

55%

Betting Action

45%

Pointspread -3.5 -110
Moneyline -195
Over / Under u +50

55%

Betting Action

45%

Mercedes-Benz Stadium has traditionally been a spot for high scoring and plenty of passing – and the Atlanta Falcons certainly hope that’s the case this Sunday as they look to bolster their playoff hopes against the visiting Dallas Cowboys. The Falcons are coming off a 28-16 loss in Cleveland but happily return to Atlanta, where they’ve won three of five games this season while scoring 30 or more points four times in that span.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Falcons are slight favourites in this one by virtue of home-field advantage – but they’ve had problems playing down to the competition of late, having failed to cover four consecutive times against teams with losing records. They’ve also covered just two of their previous seven games overall. The Cowboys boast an identical 2-5 ATS mark in the last seven meetings between the teams, but have covered 19 times with one push in their past 27 games on grass.

The total for this one is 48 – the highest the Cowboys have seen so far this season. And that might just play into under bettors’ hands, given that Dallas is a scorching 20-6 to the under in its previous 26 road games. The Cowboys have also converted the under eight straight times following a straight-up win. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 4-1 O/U in its previous five home games and has exceeded the total in six of its past eight games overall.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys can’t hope to compete with Matt Ryan and the Falcons through the air – but they might not have to, if Ezekiel Elliott can duplicate his success from last week. Elliott racked up 151 yards on the ground, another 36 through the air and finished with two touchdowns in the Cowboys’ 27-20 win over the Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles. This is his first meeting with the Falcons, having missed last year’s 27-7 Atlanta win tilt due to suspension.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons don’t hide their offensive plans – they rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (89.8) but sit second in passing yards (319.1). And while Ryan has played one more game at home than on the road, he is still far superior at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, having thrown for 1,799 yards with 14 touchdowns and one interception while completing nearly 77 percent of his attempts. He had 215 passing yards and two scores in last year’s win.

Cowboys vs. Falcons Prediction

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